动态联系数与全偏确定度相耦合的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价方法  

Evaluation of regional agricultural drought vulnerability coupled with dynamic connection number and full partial certainty

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 张浩宇 陈梦璐 王红瑞[3] 崔毅[4] 宁少尉 JIN Juliang;ZHANG Haoyu;CHEN Menglu;WANG Hongrui;CUI Yi;NING Shaowei(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,230009,Hefei,Anhui,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,230009,Hefei,Auhui,China;College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,300072,Tianjin,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [4]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第6期724-730,共7页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC1502405）;山东省重点研发计划项目（2017GSF20101）;国家自然科学基金项目（51579059,51709071,51579060）

摘　　要：区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价是准确预防农业旱灾风险的前提,在区域农业旱灾风险调控实践中具有重要作用,针对减轻农业旱灾脆弱性程度开展的相关研究对减少旱灾灾损极其重要.为动态评价区域农业旱灾脆弱性强弱程度,综合考虑各评价年份旱灾脆弱性的动态发展特征,通过构造联系数的变化增量函数同时借助联系数各分量动态变化的性质改进差异度系数的确定方法,构建了动态联系数与全偏确定度相耦合的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价方法,并实际应用于安徽省蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性动态评价中.结果表明:2001-2010年蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性程度处于相对平稳的状态,只有2001、2002、2003年为4级水平,2004-2010年均为3级水平,全市的脆弱性程度有逐年降低的趋势;农业系统对于旱灾的承受能力呈逐年提升趋势.上述动态评价成果显示,基于动态联系数与全偏确定度耦合的评价方法更能体现出时间变化对于旱灾脆弱性等级变化的影响,可为区域农业旱灾风险防控提供科学参考,对推动农业旱灾风险定量评估具有积极作用.Assessment of regional agricultural drought vulnerability is a precondition for accurate prevention of agricultural drought risk,it plays an important role in the practice of regional agricultural drought risk control.Relevant research is extremely important to reduce drought damage.To evaluate regional agricultural drought vulnerability dynamically,a method was constructed considering variation increment function of connection number improving method of difference coefficient determination with the help of variation in connection number component.The method for regional agricultural drought vulnerability assessment with coupling of dynamic connection number and full deviation degree was also applied to evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City Anhui Province.It was found that vulnerability of agricultural drought in Bengbu city from 2001 to 2010 was relatively stable,at level 4 in 2001,2002 and 2003,at level 3 from 2004 to 2010.Vulnerability of the city was decreasing year by year,tolerance of agricultural system to drought was increasing.Evaluation method in the present study completely reflects effect of time change on drought vulnerability,providing scientific reference for regional agricultural drought risk prevention and control and playing apositive role in promoting quantitative assessment of agricultural drought risk.

关 键 词：农业旱灾风险防控 旱灾脆弱性 动态联系数 全偏确定度 差异度系数 评价 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]