未来气候模式下淮河流域极端降水量的时空变化分析  

Spatio-temporal trend of extreme precipitation in Huaihe River basin based on the future climate model

作　　者：陈琛 石朋[1,2] 瞿思敏 孙龙[3] 牟时雨[1] 冯颖 董丰成 崔彦萍 CHEN Chen;SHI Peng;QU Simin;SUN Long;MOU Shiyu;FENG Ying;DONG Fengcheng;CUI Yanping(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Information Centre of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053;Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Nanjing 210028,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]水利部信息中心,北京100053 [4]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2019年第4期494-500,共7页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0405601);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51479062);浙江省水利厅重大科技资助项目(RA1801)

摘　　要：本文以淮河干流小柳巷以上14个气象站1960—2015年逐日降水观测数据为基础,选取HadGEM2-ES气候模式,预测了2016—2075年RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5三种排放情景下日降水量数据,选取年最大日降水量序列(AM)与超门限阈值峰值序列(POT),分析未来气候模式下淮河流域极端降水量的时空变化和重现期。研究发现:在三种排放情景下,淮河流域暴雨中心均未发生明显转移,暴雨中心仍将集中于流域上游,这将给该地区带来潜在的防洪压力;极端降水量随着重现期的增长而增大;同时极端降水量按照RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5的顺序增大;相同重现期,相同排放情景下AM序列略大于POT序列。研究结果对淮河流域未来防洪规划具有重要的的参考意义。Based on the observed daily precipitation series of 14 meteorological stations in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin above the Xiaoliuxiang hydrological station from 1960 to 2015,the daily precipitation series from 2016 to 2075 are projected by using the HadGEM2-ES climate model outputs under three emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The Annual Maximum(AM)series and Peak over Threshold(POT)series are selected to analyze the temporal and spatial variation and return period of extreme precipitation under future climate scenarios.It is found that no matter in which emission scenarios,the rainstorm center in Huaihe River Basin has not been significantly transferred,and that the rainstorm center will still be concentrated in the upstream region,bringing potential flood control pressure to the region.Moreover,with the return period increasing,the extreme precipitation increases accordingly.Similarly,the extreme precipitation gradually increases with the increase of emission scenarios from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5;in the same return period and the same emission scenario,the values of AM series are slightly greater than that of the POT one.This study is of enormous reference significance for future flood control planning of Huaihe River Basin.

关 键 词：淮河 未来气候模式 极端降水量 暴雨中心 重现期 

分 类 号：TV121.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]