基于DSGE模型的能源税征收最优环节选择:产出型抑或投入型?  

Optimal Link Selection of Optimal Energy Taxation Collection based on DSGE Modelling: Input or Output Taxation?

作　　者：张晓娣[1] 孔圣暠 ZHANG Xiao-di;KONG Sheng-hao(Institute of economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences 200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2019年第12期56-67,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“内生技术变迁理论下征收碳税与能源技术创新相容性的DSGE模型研究”(批准号:16CJY030)阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：设立开征统一的能源税,将改善中国现有税制体系中能源类税种名目繁多、零散碎片的局面,不仅有利于实现节能降耗、减轻税收负担,而且对增加财政收入、调节收入分配也有积极作用。但是,新税种的设立必须考虑其宏观经济成本,因此,本文利用包含内生性技术变迁的多部门DSGE模型对能源税如何影响宏观经济发展进行了预测,模拟了GDP、就业、投资、能源投入等宏观经济指标在2020-2049年的变动轨迹,并且区分了在生产的投入环节征税与在生产的产出环节征税的差异化效果。研究发现,无论在哪个环节征税均会对经济增长产生一定的抑制作用,但是投入型能源税的负面影响较小,并且对能源消耗的削减作用较为显著,原因在于其能够为企业提供改进能源使用技术、提高能源效率的激励机制。特别是配合降低劳动所得税的税收循环方式,从长期来看,可以抵消掉能源成本上升对投资、就业以及GDP的负面效应,使经济增长路径向稳态水平收敛。此外,投入型能源税能够为政府提供较为稳定、规模适度的财政收入。因此,能源税的征收应设置在投入环节较为适宜。The establishment of a unified energy tax will improve the situation of China’s existing tax system in which a wide variety of energy-related taxes coexit, which will not only help to achieve energy conservation and reduce tax burden, but also have positive effects on generating extra fiscal revenue and equalizing income distribution. However, the introduction of new taxes must take into account their macroeconomic costs. In this regard, this article utilized a multi-sector DSGE model to predict how the energy tax affects macroeconomic development, and simulates the trajectory of major macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, investment, and energy input in 2020-2049, distinguishing the differential influences of input taxation and output taxation. Our scenario simulations find out that both ways of taxation will have a certain inhibitory effects on economic growth, but the negative impacts of input-type taxation are smaller, with amore significant reduction of energy consumption. The reason lies in that input taxation could provide enterprises with incentives to improve energy use technology and improve energy efficiency. Especially, in combination with the tax recycling of reducing labor income tax, it would offset the negative effects on investment, employment and GDP, and converge to the steady state leve in the long run. In addition, input taxation would generate a relatively stable and moderately-sized fiscal revenue for the government. As a result, levying on energy inputs might be a proper way for energy taxation.

关 键 词：能源税 DSGE模型 内生性技术变迁 投入型税 产出型税 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]