上海长江口风暴潮数值预报模型实例研究  

A case study of the numerical model of storm surge in Shanghai coastal area

作　　者：肖梦睫 孙丽 潘崇伦 XIAO Mengjie;SUN Li;PAN Chonglun(Shanghai Water Information Center,Shanghai 200050)

机构地区：[1]上海市水务信息中心

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2020年第3期22-26,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：风暴潮是一种灾害性的自然现象。为了有效提高风暴潮数值预报精度,以上海长江口沿海为研究对象,构建了长江口风暴潮数值预报模型。该模型能够模拟风暴潮与天文潮等多重因素作用下潮水位过程变化。为了验证模型,选取201718号超强台风“泰利”作为典型案例,并对该场台风过程引起的风暴增水进行了跟踪预报。经验证,台风“泰利”的中心位置距上海沿岸400 km以外,未造成超过1.00 m的风暴增水;且预报潮位精度良好,能够满足风暴潮预报要求。Storm surge is a severe natural phenomena.In order to effectively improve the accuracy of storm surge model,a numerical forecast model of storm surge is constructed based on the study of Shanghai coastal area.The model can simulate the changes of the tide level process under multiple factors such as storm surge and astronomi⁃cal tide.In order to verify the model,super-strong typhoon“Tail”No.201718 is selected as a typical case,and the storm surge caused by the typhoon process is tracked and forecasted.It has been verified that the center of the typhoon is located 400 km away from the coast of Shanghai and does not cause storm surge exceeding 1.00 m;the forecast accuracy is good and it can meet the requirements of the storm surge forecast.

关 键 词：风暴潮 长江口 数值预报 增水 预报精度 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]