AMSU-A微波资料变分同化对双台风预报的影响研究  

Influence of assimilating AMSU-A Microwave Data on binary typhoon forecast using variational method

作　　者：钱芝颖 鲍艳松 沈菲菲[1,2] 张明阳 唐维尧 (南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心 气象环境卫星工程与应用联合实验室 中国气象局气溶胶与云 QIAN Zhi-ying;BAO Yan-song;SHEN Fei-fei;ZHANG Ming-yang;TANG Wei-yao(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration,Joint Laboratory of Meteorological Environment Satellite Engineering and Application,Nanjing 210044 China;Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044 China;College of Meteorology and Oceanography,Nanjing 211101 China)

机构地区：[1]降水重点开放实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏南京210044 [3]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101

出　　处：《海洋预报》2019年第6期9-21,共13页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家重点研发计划（2017YFB0502802,2017YFC15017043,2016YFA0600703）;国防科工局十三五预研项目（D010107）;中国气象局中国遥感卫星辐射测量和定标重点开放实验室开放课题;国家自然科学基金项目（41805016、41805070）;江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK20170940);2018年江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目（KYCX18_1026）

摘　　要：选取2015年发生在西北太平洋的一次双台风"灿鸿"和"莲花",考察微波辐射率资料同化在双台风数值预报中的应用,采用WRF-3Dvar系统,将AMSU-A微波辐射率资料同化进数值模式用于改善模式的初始场。试验结果表明:直接同化AMSU-A辐射率资料能有效缓解台风在海面上观测资料的不足,对于数值模式初始场的改进效果要优于仅同化常规资料的效果,并且从大尺度环境场上看使模式具备更合理的环流形势,从而提高了对台风路径以及强度模拟的精度,同时对降水强度、落区的模拟更加准确。This paper investigate the influence of assimilating AMSU-A microwave radiance data on the numerical prediction of binary typhoon"Chanhom"and"Linfa"occurred in the northwestern Pacific in 2015 using the WRF-3 Dvar system. The results show that, compared to assimilating conventional data, the initial condition of the numerical model can be more significantly improved by assimilating the AMSU-A microwave radiance data, which is a promising supplement to the limited amount of typhoon observation data on the sea surface.. The model shows more reasonable circulation patter and the typhoon track and intensity is improved when the data assimilation is applied. Meanwhile, the precipitation intensity and the falling area get more accurate.

关 键 词：双台风 微波辐射率资料 三维变分同化 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]