南方农牧交错带降水变化及旱涝多时间尺度特征  

Variation of Precipitation and Multi-time Scale Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Farming-grazing Transitional Zone of South China

作　　者：张雪茂 董廷旭[1,2] 杜华明 邱豪[1] 严霜 Zhang Xuemao;Dong Tingxu;Du Huaming;Qiu Hao;Yan Shuang(School of Resources and Environment Engineering,Mianyang Teachers’College,Mianyang,Sichuan 621000,China;Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Mianyang,Sichuan 621000,China)

机构地区：[1]绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,四川绵阳621000 [2]生态安全与保护四川省重点实验室,四川绵阳621000

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2019年第6期183-189,I0002,共8页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：生态安全与保护四川省重点实验室开发基金项目“龙门山区生态安全评价与风险管控”ESP1707(41171125);绵阳师范学院科研启动项目(QD2016A001);绵阳师范学院校级自然科学基金项目(MYSY2018T003)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析南方农牧交错带降水变化及旱涝多时间尺度特征,为该区旱涝灾害防治决策、牧区生态重建及保护提供科学参考。[方法]基于南方农牧交错带1960-2017年20个气象站点逐月降水量资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)、反距离权重插值、M-K突变检验等方法对南方农牧交错带近58 a的降水特征及旱涝灾害时空格局进行研究。[结果]①近58 a以来南方农牧交错带年平均降水量以3.98 mm/10 a的速率在增加,降水主要集中在夏季,用M-K方法检测出该区域年平均降水量在1990年发生突变;②受气候、大气环流、地形、海拔高差、下垫面等因素的影响,降水量在空间分布上以维西-理塘-若尔盖为界,西北部降水量少,东南部降水量多,降水量呈现出由东南向西北递减的趋势;③研究区年降水量的增减变化以松潘-马尔康-新龙-理塘-稻城一线为界线,该线以东地区的年降水量均呈显著增长趋势发展,以西地区的年降水量呈显著减少趋势;[结论]研究区20世纪60-70年代旱灾发生的频率略高,80-90年代涝灾发生的频率较高,2000年以来旱涝灾害呈明显的减弱趋势发展。[Objective]The characteristics of precipitation change and multi-time scale characteristics of drought and flood in the farming-grazing transitional zone of South China was studied in order to provide scientific reference for the decision-making of drought and flood disaster prevention and control,ecological reconstruction and protection in the pastoral area.[Methods]Based on monthly precipitation data of 20 meteorological stations in the farming-grazing transitional zone of South China from 1960 to 2017,the precipitation characteristics,spatial and temporal patterns of drought and flood disasters were studied by using standardized precipitation index(SPI),Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation and M-K mutation test in the farming-grazing transitional zone of South China in recent 58 years.[Results]①The annual average precipitation in the farming-grazing transitional zone of South China increased at a rate of 3.98 mm/10 a in the past 58 years,precipitation was mainly concentrated in summer.Detected by M-K method,the abrupt change of annual average precipitation was occurred in 1990.②Due to the influence of climate,atmospheric circulation,topography,altitude,underlying surface and other factors,the spatial distribution of precipitation was bounded by Vici-Litang-Ruoergai,with less precipitation in the northwest and more in the southeast,showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.③The annual precipitation in the study area was bounded by Songpan-Malkang-Xinlong-Litang-Daocheng line.The annual precipitation in the east of the line showed a more significant growth trend,while the annual precipitation in the west showed a more significant decrease trend.[Conclusion]In the study area,the frequency of drought was slightly higher in the 1960s-1970s,and the frequency of flooding was higher in the 1980s-1990s.Since 2000,the drought and flood disasters have been weakened obviously.

关 键 词：标准化降水指数(SPI) M-K突变检验 降水特征 旱涝灾害 

分 类 号：P942[天文地球—自然地理学]