全面二孩政策下贵州省人口与医疗资源需求预测分析  

Population prediction and medical resource demand in Guizhou Province under the "universal two-child policy"

作　　者：曾佳俊 王婷[1] 张艳凤 Zeng Jiajun;Wang Ting;Zhang Yanfeng(College of Management of Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国医疗管理科学》2020年第2期5-12,共8页Chinese Journal Of Medical Management Sciences

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划联合基金(18GZLH03);贵州大学文科重点学科及特色学科重大项目(GDZT201702)

摘　　要：目的为响应"全面二孩"生育政策,通过预测未来人口总数,合理规划医疗资源发展,以充分应对新一轮的生育高潮.方法首先基于系统动力学建立了针对"全面二孩"政策的人口数量预测模型,然后以贵州省为例进行实证研究,分析了贵州省现阶段医疗资源总量、布局现状及未来10年人口发展趋势,再根据国务院和原国家卫生部颁布的医疗资源配置标准对贵州省医疗资源需求进行合理预测.结果根据相关标准,到2027年,需增加床位3.24万张,执业(助理)医师4.65万人,注册护士11.04万人.结论贵州省医疗卫生资源配置不公平现象凸显,且需求量不断增大,针对这一问题,提出贵州省"一点两带"医疗资源发展战略,并对贵州省医疗卫生资源发展做出计划安排.Objective To accurately predict the future total population, and rationally plan the development of medical resources to address the possible fertility climax under the "universal two-child policy". Methods Based on the system dynamics, a population prediction model for the two-child policy was established. Taking Guizhou Province as an example, an empirical study was carried out to analyze the current status about the total volume and distribution of medical resources in Guizhou Province and the population growth trend in the next 10 years. According to the medical resource allocation standards issued by the State Council and the former Ministry of Health, the demand for medical resources in Guizhou Province was evaluated. Results By 2027, 32 400 hospital beds, 46 500 licensed(assistant) doctors and 110 400 registered nurses will be needed. Conclusion Uneven distribution of medical and health resources is obvious in Guizhou Province, and the demand is increasing. To address this problem, the development strategy of medical resources involving "one central zone and two densely populated areas" in Guizhou Province was proposed.

关 键 词：全面二孩生育政策 人口预测模型 医疗资源需求预测 卫生资源配置 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] F207[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]