中国宏观杠杆率的分解及动态演变机制  

Analysis and Dynamic Evolution Mechanism of China’s Macro Leverage

作　　者：傅雄广 侯国栋 Fu Xiongguang;Hou Guodong

机构地区：[1]渤海证券债券销售交易总部

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2020年第2期147-161,8,共16页International Economic Review

摘　　要：近年来,中国宏观杠杆率的快速上升受到了高度重视,宏观杠杆率的有效控制有利于防范化解重大风险。本文在BIS和CNBS宏观杠杆率数据的基础上,通过整理早期的文献和资料,得到1978-2018年中国居民、企业、政府部门的杠杆率及总体宏观杠杆率。数据表明,中国宏观杠杆率呈现上升趋势。通过将宏观杠杆率分解成微观杠杆率、实际资本产出比、资产相对价格后,发现改革开放以来,伴随着货币化和金融深化进程,微观杠杆率整体呈现上升趋势,是推升宏观杠杆率上升的重要因素。而金融危机后,伴随着储蓄率的上升,实际资本产出比快速上升,加快了宏观杠杆率的上升。未来,在去杠杆政策的推进下,实体经济的微观杠杆率有望得到控制;同时储蓄率的下降也将带来实际资本产出比的稳定;在房地产长效机制和人口等因素的作用下,资产相对价格也可能保持平稳。因此,未来中国宏观杠杆率有望得到有效控制,将呈现小幅回落后长期趋稳的走势。The rapid rise of China’s macro-leverage in recent years has aroused widespread attention,and effective control of macro leverage helps prevent and resolve major risks.Based on the macro leverage data of BIS and CNBS,we obtain China’s overall macro leverage ratio and leverage ratio of residents,enterprises,and government departments from 1978 to 2018 through collating early literature and data.China’s macro leverage has shown an upward trajectory for a long time.By decomposing macro leverage into micro leverage,real capital-output ratio,and relative asset prices,we find that since the reform and opening up,with the progress of monetization and financial deepening,the overall micro-leverage ratio has shown an upward trend,which is an important factor that promotes the rise of macro-leverage ratio.After the global financial crisis more than ten years ago,with the rise of the savings rate,the real capital-output ratio has been rapidly moving up,which has led to accelerated rise of macro leverage.In the future,with the implementation of deleveraging policies,the micro-leverage ratio of the real economy is expected to be controlled;meanwhile,the decline in the savings rate will also help stabilize the real capital-output ratio;thanks to the long-term real estate mechanisms and relatively stable population,the relative assets prices may also remain stable.Therefore,in the future,China’s macro-leverage ratio is expected to be effectively controlled;it may decline slightly but will remain largely stable in the long term.

关 键 词：宏观杠杆率 实际资本产出比 资产相对价格 微观杠杆率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]