基于层次分析法和模糊数学相结合的甘肃东乡八丹沟泥石流易发性评价  

Evaluation of the susceptibility of debris flow in Badan Gully of Dongxiang County of Gansu based on AHP and Fuzzy mathematics

作　　者：崔志超 王俊豪 崔传峰 潘国营[1] CUI Zhichao;WANG Junhao;CUI Chuanfeng;PAN Guoying(Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454000, China;China Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学,河南焦作454000 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2020年第1期44-50,共7页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：中国地质环境监测院地质调查与地质监测项目:唐汪川幅地质灾害调查评价(中国地环[2017]DD0402)

摘　　要：八丹沟位于甘肃东乡县,近年来多次发生泥石流,对流域内居民生命财产造成了巨大的威胁,因此对八丹沟泥石流易发性评价是非常必要的。本文在详细分析八丹沟流域特征和动力学特征的基础上,选取了11个评价因子作为八丹沟泥石流易发性评价的指标,利用层次分析法对各个因子赋予权重,并且构建模糊数学综合评价模型对八丹沟泥石流进行易发性评价。结果表明:八丹沟泥石流爆发频率20年、50年、100年的的易发性为中易发,应加强防范并采取合理的防治措施,保证当地居民的生命财产安全。Badan Gully is located in Dongxiang County of Gansu Province,many debris flow have occur in recent years,which poses a great threat to the life and property of the local residents,therefore it is necessary to evaluate the susceptibility of debris flow in Badan Gully.In this paper,based on the detailed analysis of the characteristics of the Badan Gully and the dynamic characteristics of the basin,11 evaluation factors were selected as the indicators for the evaluation of the debris flow in the Badan Gully,weight to each factor is assigned by AHP,and fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation model is constructed to evaluatethe susceptibility of the debris flow in Badan Gully.The results show that the susceptibility of the outbreak frequency of debris flow in 20 years,50 years and 100 years is moderately easy.Prevention and control measures should be taken to ensure the safety of life and property of local residents.

关 键 词：泥石流 易发性 AHP 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]