通货膨胀的产业结构变迁效应与社会福利损失  

The Effects of Inflation on Structural Change and its Welfare Cost

作　　者：严成樑[1] Yan Chengliang

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2020年第2期49-73,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA005);国家社科基金一般项目(16BJL059)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：本文在一个产业结构变迁框架下按照现金约束(CIA)方式引入货币政策,研究货币政策通过通货膨胀渠道作用于产业结构变迁的传导机制,并估算通货膨胀的社会福利损失。研究发现,假设消费受CIA约束时,非位似偏好是通货膨胀影响产业结构变迁的重要原因;假设消费和投资同时受CIA约束时,非位似偏好和资本深化都是通货膨胀影响产业结构变迁的原因。通货膨胀率越高,农业部门的劳动力份额越高,通货膨胀抑制了产业结构变迁。量化分析结果表明,取消通货膨胀税带来的社会福利改善相当于增加1.97%-4.68%的消费;通货膨胀率在基准上增加10个百分点,带来的社会福利损失相当于减少2.31%-5.24%的消费。本文认为以往的文献忽视了通货膨胀对产业结构变迁的抑制效应,从而低估了通货膨胀的社会福利损失。This paper introduces monetary policy into a structural change model through the cash in advance(CIA) constraint approach, exploring the channel through which inflation can affect structural change, and estimating the welfare cost of inflation. It is found that when consumption is limited by the CIA condition, non-homothetic preferences are the only channel through which inflation can affect structural change. When both consumption and investment are simultaneously constrained by the CIA condition, non-homothetic preferences and capital deepening are channels through which inflation can affect structural change. Inflation increases labour share in the agricultural sector, which in turn inhibits the process of structural change. Quantitative analysis shows that the welfare improvement produced by eliminating inflation tax is equivalent to increasing consumption by 1.97%-4.68%. When the inflation rate rises by 10 percentage points, its welfare cost is equivalent to reducing consumption by 2.31%-5.24%. This paper argues that the previous literature has neglected the negative effect of inflation on structural change, and has therefore underestimated the welfare cost of inflation.

关 键 词：货币政策 通货膨胀 社会福利损失 产业结构变迁 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F121.3