不同供需下农产品双渠道供应链的决策  

Decision Making of Dual-Channel Supply Chain of Agricultural Products Under Different Supply and Demand Conditions

作　　者：刘一健 岳小云[1,2] LIU Yijian;YUE Xiaoyun(Economic and Management College,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004;Hebei Normal University of Science and Technology,Qinhuangdao 066004)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,秦皇岛066004 [2]河北科技师范学院,秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2019年第11期1808-1822,共15页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171174);河北省自然科学基金(G2014203219)资助课题

摘　　要：供需扰动在农产品供应链中普遍存在,易导致生产过剩或缺货风险,文章旨在探讨不同供需下供应链的最优决策.供应商采用双渠道销售某单一农产品,并在供应链中占主导地位,利用均值-方差法描述其风险态度.分别在一体化和独立决策模式下考虑供需关系,针对四种不同情形进行分析,并利用数值算例进行验证.研究发现供应商随着风险规避程度的上升,其两个渠道价格反向调整,使得需求量扩大,其最优供应量提高.市场最优的供应量有一定的鲁棒性,当供需偏差较大时,市场的最优供应量才会发生变动.并进一步分析渠道所占市场份额对供应链最优决策的影响.Supply and demand disturbances are common in agricultural supply chains,which can easily lead to the risk of overproduction or shortage.This paper discusses the optimal decision-making of supply chains under different supply and demand conditions.Supplier sells a single agricultural product in dual-channel supply chain,and plays a leading role.While mean variance method is used to consider the supplier’s risk attitude.We consider the relationship between supply and demand under different decision-making modes of the supply chain,four different cases are built and discussed respectively.Finally,some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.The study finds that suppliers adjust prices in the opposite direction with the increase of risk aversion coefficient,which enlarges the demand and improves the optimal supply.The market optimal demand is robust,when the supply and demand deviations are large,the optimal demand for the market will change.Furthermore,the influence of market share of channel on optimal decision-making of supply chain is analyzed.

关 键 词：供需关系 农产品 双渠道 风险规避 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]