遂宁市寒潮客观预报方法及效果检验分析  

Objective Forecasting Method of Cold Wave and Effect Examination of Suining

作　　者：唐沛 袁静 陆鸿彬 彭承宪 TANG Pei;YUAN Jing;LU Hongbin;PENG Chengxian(Suining Meteorological Observatory,Suining 629000,China;Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省遂宁市气象局,遂宁629000 [2]成都信息工程大学,成都610225

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2019年第4期53-58,共6页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

摘　　要：利用1981~2018年地面实况资料、高空观测资料、遂宁地区观测站地面气象要素数据以及2013~2018年欧洲中心数值预报产品,采用最小二乘法和MOS法两种方法建立遂宁地区寒潮客观预报方法。结果表明:遂宁地区寒潮客观预报方法能够明显提高欧洲中心温度预报的准确率,并且极大的降低欧洲中心预报寒潮过程的空报率和漏报率,投入实际预报业务以来使用效果较好,准确预报了2018年4月~2019年4月的5次寒潮天气过程,对遂宁地区寒潮和降温天气过程的预报具有较高的指导作用。Based on the surface and upper air observation data from 1981 to 2018,data of surface meteorological elements in Suining observation station,and ECMWF numerical forecasting products from 2013 to 2018.The least square method and MOS method are used to establish the objective prediction method of cold wave in Suining.The results showed that the objective prediction method of cold wave in Suining obviously improved accuracy rate of ECMWF surface air temperature forecasting,and the method proposed can reduce vacancy forecast rate and omissive judgement rate,and the method performed well In actual forecasting applications,five cold wave weather processes from April 2018 to April 2019 were accurately predicted,and which had a high guiding role in forecasting cold wave and cooling weather process in Suining.

关 键 词：寒潮预报 多项式拟合 MOS预报方法 模式产品释用 预报检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]