财政政策对产业结构调整的影响研究——基于不同经济发展水平的门槛效应  

Research on the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Industrial Structure Adjustment——Threshold Effect Based on Different Levels of Economic Development

作　　者：王良虎 马雅恬 王钊[1] Wang Lianghu;Ma Yatian;Wang Zhao

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2019年第6期45-58,共14页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“不同市场结构下我国环境税效应研究”(13BJY149);重庆市社会科学规划博士项目“西部地区产业升级中人力资源开发研究:基于全球价值链分工视角”(2014BS114)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：财政政策对我国产业结构调整具有重要作用,但在不同经济发展水平下其调节的中介作用有所不同。本文基于2002-2017年省域面板数据,运用动态面板模型实证分析了财政政策对产业结构调整的影响效应。研究发现,财政政策实施显著地促进了产业结构的优化调整,且产业结构调整存在一定连贯性;采用动态面板门槛模型进一步发现财政政策对产业结构调整存在非线性影响,具体表现为存在受经济发展水平作用的门槛效应,在门槛值的左右表现出财政政策的差异性政策效应。因此,实施财政政策时应与经济发展水平相适应,且应进一步通过推进财政政策体系建设、加强教育体制改革、提高对外开放水平等措施为产业结构调整做好助推力。Fiscal policy plays an important role in China’s industrial restructuring,but its mediating role is different under different levels of economic development.Therefore,based on the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2017,this paper first uses the dynamic panel model to empirically analyze the impact of fiscal policy on the adjustment of industrial structure.It is found that the implementation of fiscal policy has significantly promoted the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure,and the adjustment of industrial structure is persistent.Secondly,the dynamic panel threshold model is used to further find that there is a nonlinear effect of fiscal policy on the adjustment of industrial structure,which is embodied in the threshold effect of economic development level where in the left and right table of threshold value the different policy effect of fiscal policy appears.Therefore,the implementation of fiscal policy should be in line with the level of economic development,and further promote the construction of fiscal policy system,strengthen the reform of education system,improve the level of opening up and other measures to do a good job in promoting the adjustment of industrial structure.

关 键 词：财政政策 产业结构调整 动态面板模型 动态面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学] F121.3