降低税收政策不确定性能否提升企业的资本回报率--基于所得税收入分享改革的准自然试验  

Can Reduction in the Uncertainty of Tax Policy Improve the Capital Return of Enterprises?--A Quasi-Natural Test Based on Income Tax Sharing Reform

作　　者：杨君[1] 黄先海[2] 宋学印[2] Yang Jun;Huang Xianhai;Song Xueyin(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Sci-tech University,Hangzhou 310018,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2019年第6期116-131,共16页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(17CJL044)。

摘　　要：深化税收政策改革激发企业活力,已成为当前经济发展的关键所在。基于中国2002年实施的所得税收入分享改革这一准自然试验,借助断点回归设计(RDD)识别税收政策不确定性与企业资本回报率之间的因果关系,研究发现:降低税收政策不确定性能够显著提升企业的资本回报率;与国有企业和集体企业相比,私有企业资本回报率受上述政策变化的影响较小;税收政策不确定性通过税收负担和投资波动两个机制影响企业资本回报率。规范税收执法,降低税收政策的不确定性,有助于降低企业税负并稳定企业经营预期,应成为深化税收政策改革的重要举措。At present,China is pushing forward the reform of″Cutting Taxes and Fees″in order to reduce the tax burden on enterprises and boost the vitality of the real economy.However,the implementation of reform policies will be subject to great uncertainty due to the difference in the intensity of implementation,which will affect the implementation effect of the policies.Although the central government has always stressed the need to maintain the stability of macroeconomic policies,in the past decade,many economic policies in China have been characterized by″discretionary choice″,which not only exacerbated investment fluctuations,but also caused serious problems in boosting business confidence.Policy uncertainty makes it difficult for enterprises to reasonably predict investment returns and costs,which leads to severe distortions in investment decisions and makes it arduous to achieve the goal of maximizing return on capital.In recent years,China’s declining returns on capital has seriously hit the investment-driven growth mode.Therefore,reasonably evaluating the influence of policy uncertainty on the return on capital and its mechanism not only helps to build the steady growth policy of return on capital,but also provides scientific guidance for the smooth proceed of the″Cutting Taxes and Fees″reform.Most studies on the impact of policy uncertainty have problems such as controversial index selection and the endogenous problem of policy impact assessment.Therefore,if there is an exogenous impact that can measure the change of policy uncertainty,the above problems can be solved.China’s Income Tax Sharing reform in 2002 provided a rare quasi-natural experiment in assessing the impact of policy uncertainty.Based on the above Income Tax Sharing reform,this paper estimates the relationship between tax policy uncertainty and return on capital with the help of a relatively new measurement method - Regression Discontinuity Design,which effectively avoids endogenous problems among variables and improves the accurac

关 键 词：税收政策 资本回报率 不确定性 断点回归 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F279.2