基于历史故障信息的配电网设备故障概率建模  

Failure probability model of distribution network equipment based on historical fault information

作　　者：王辉 郝丽丽 黄梅[2] 张圣健 吉宇[2] 陈乾 方鑫 WANG Hui;HAO Lili;HUANG Mei;ZHANG Shengjian;JI Yu;CHEN Qian;FANG Xin(College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China;Nantong Electric Power Company,Nantong 226006,China;NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学电气工程与控制科学学院,江苏南京211816 [2]南通供电公司,江苏南通226006 [3]南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏南京211106

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2020年第3期76-84,共9页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(基于系统风险评估的配电网故障恢复决策技术研究)(J2018110);江苏省“六大人才高峰”项目(XNY-020);智能电网保护和运行控制国家重点实验室资助项目。

摘　　要：以架空裸导线和110 kV/10 kV油浸式变压器这2类10 kV配电网的主要设备为研究对象,结合实际历史故障记录信息对2类设备的故障进行机理分析,确定故障成因,并分析各主要因素对设备故障的影响。研究表明,架空裸导线的故障主要与运行年限、负载率、环境温度、风速、降雨、雷击、鸟害和外部异物有关,110 kV/10 kV油浸式变压器的故障主要与运行年限、负载率、环境温度、降雨、鸟害及用户因素有关。基于威布尔分布对设备老化失效进行拟合,基于泊松回归模型对导线过电压、空气间隙放电及过电流故障和变压器过电流故障进行拟合。基于设备故障因素间的耦合关系分析,建立设备故障概率模型。以某实际配网历史故障数据为例对所提方法进行验证,结果表明拟合故障概率能够反映真实故障概率的趋势,且误差较小。Combined with the actual historical fault records,the fault mechanism analysis of overhead bare conductor and 110 kV/10 kV oil-immersed transformer,which are the main equipments in 10 kV distribution networks,is carried out. The effects of main fault factors on equipment are analyzed,which shows that faults of overhead bare conductor are mainly caused by the factors of operating life,load rate,ambient temperature,wind speed,rainfall,lightning strike,bird damage and external foreign matters,and the faults of110 kV/10 kV oil-immersed transformer are mainly related to operating life,load rate,ambient temperature,rainfall,bird damage and user factors. The aging failure of equipment is fitted based on Weibull distribution. The conductor failures of over-voltage,air gap discharge,and over-current and the transformer failure of over-current are all fitted based on Poisson regression model. Based on the coupling relationship analysis of equipment fault factors,the fault probability model of equipment is established. Taking the historical fault data of a real distribution network as an example to verify the proposed method,the results show that the fitting fault probability can reflect the trend of real fault probability with less error.

关 键 词：配电网 10 kV架空裸导线 110 kV/10 kV油浸式变压器 威布尔分布 泊松回归模型 设备故障概率模型 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]