A look into the past, present and future potential distributions of Talinopsis frutescens, a North American endemic lineage closely related to Cactaceae  

作　　者：Mónica I MIGUEL-VÁZQUEZ Yasser S LÓPEZ DE OLMOS R Gilberto OCAMPO 

机构地区：[1]Department of Biology,Basic Sciences Center,Autonomous University of Aguascalientes,940 University Avenue,Aguascalientes 20130,Mexico [2]Biological and Health Sciences PhD Program,Department of Biology,Biological and Health Sciences Division,Autonomous Metropolitan University,Iztapalapa 09340,Mexico

出　　处：《Journal of Arid Land》2020年第1期104-114,共11页干旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：partially funded by the National Council of Science and Technology, Mexico (PhD scholarship 436041);the Cactus and Succulent Society of America grant;supported by the Educational Professional Development Program (#UAA-PTC-169) granted to the corresponding author by the Public Education Department and the Autonomous University of Aguascalientes, Mexico

摘　　要：Talinopsis frutescens(Anacampserotaceae,a family that is close related to Cactaceae)is a succulent species endemic to North America.The aim of this study was to explore,using Ecological Niche Modeling(ENM),changes in potential distribution ranges considering different climate scenarios:past conditions during the Last Inter Glacial(LIG)and the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the present and projections for 2070(RCP 2.6 to 8.5).A pattern of contraction is observed during the LIG,which agrees with other studies focused in species from arid environments.This pattern was followed by a migration towards the south during the LGM and a possible recent expansion to the north as is observed in the present scenario.All future projections show the same contraction and fragmentation patterns,resulting in three discontinuous areas:the northern part of the Chihuahuan Desert,the southern-central part of the Mexican Plateau,and the smallest one in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley.Our projections for future scenarios agree with other studies and support that global climate change tends to alter the current distribution of arid environment species.Talinopsis frutescens(Anacampserotaceae, a family that is close related to Cactaceae) is a succulent species endemic to North America. The aim of this study was to explore, using Ecological Niche Modeling(ENM), changes in potential distribution ranges considering different climate scenarios: past conditions during the Last Inter Glacial(LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), the present and projections for 2070(RCP 2.6 to 8.5). A pattern of contraction is observed during the LIG, which agrees with other studies focused in species from arid environments. This pattern was followed by a migration towards the south during the LGM and a possible recent expansion to the north as is observed in the present scenario. All future projections show the same contraction and fragmentation patterns, resulting in three discontinuous areas: the northern part of the Chihuahuan Desert, the southern-central part of the Mexican Plateau, and the smallest one in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley. Our projections for future scenarios agree with other studies and support that global climate change tends to alter the current distribution of arid environment species.

关 键 词：Anacampserotaceae CARYOPHYLLALES ecological niche modeling succulent plants potential distribution 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]