GPS ZTD资料同化对台风“利奇马”模拟的影响研究  

Effect of the GPS ZTD data assimilation on simulation of typhoon “Lekima”

作　　者：周炳君 李昕[2] 陈耀登[1] 曾明剑[2] ZHOU Bingjun;LI Xin;CHEN Yaodeng;ZENG Mingjian(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210009

出　　处：《气象科学》2020年第1期11-21,共11页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502102);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41675102);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201506002);江苏省“333工程”科研项目(BRA2018100)

摘　　要：2019年超级台风“利奇马”对我国东部地区造成了巨大灾害,针对台风“利奇马”,研究GPS ZTD资料同化对于台风“利奇马”登陆后降水预报的影响。在进行GPS ZTD资料同化试验前,采取了稳定性检查、极值检查、双权重检查、偏差订正检查等质量控制方法以改善资料的同化应用水平。模拟试验结果表明在同化探空、风廓线等常规资料基础上,增加质控GPS ZTD有效改善了初始场的水汽条件,使得低层水汽辐合更强,从而改进了台风外围雨带的预报。并且通过循环同化能够改善初始环流场,进而改进了台风路径的预报使得台风主体降水的位置得到改善。Typhoon“Lekima”,the No.9 typhoon in 2019,landed in Zhejiang and caused huge disasters in the eastern part of China.The impact of GPS ZTD data assimilation on the precipitation forecast after the landing of typhoon“Lekima”was examined.Before the assimilation test,a series of quality control were carried out to improve the quality of data assimilation.Results of simulation test show that assimilating GPS ZTD effectively improved the moisture conditions of the initial field,making the water vapor convergence stronger at the low level,thus improving the forecast of the peripheral precipitation of typhoons.And assimilating GPS ZTD can improve flow field,thus improving the subsequent forecast of typhoon track and the position of the typhoon precipitation.

关 键 词：GPS ZTD资料 资料同化 台风数值模拟 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]