工业化、城镇化与现代农业效率分析——基于江苏昆山水产养殖业的实证研究  

Analysis of Industrialization,Urbanization and Modern Agricultural Efficiency——An Empirical Study Based on Aquaculture in Kunshan,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：郭颖 姜启军[1] 吴学军[2] GUO Ying;JIANG Qijun;WU Xuejun(School of Economic and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]上海电机学院,上海201306

出　　处：《复旦学报（自然科学版）》2019年第6期765-774,共10页Journal of Fudan University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(15ADZ009);国家科技支撑计划(2015BAL02B00)

摘　　要：江苏昆山在短短几十年间由一个长江下游的落后城镇发展成为一个高度工业化的现代城市,不仅创造了巨大的工业产值,在农业方面也取得了良好成绩,昆山的成功为农村三产融合和乡村振兴提供了有益的参考.本文选取农业中对需求波动和物流效率最为敏感的水产养殖业进行例证,通过研究昆山1978-2016年水产养殖业的投入产出数据,运用数据包络分析(DEA)从效率角度揭示昆山水产养殖业久负盛名的原因,进而运用Tobit模型对影响昆山水产养殖效率的社会因素进行检验,剖析影响昆山水产养殖效率的社会原因,从而为区域经济发展提供政策建议.Kunshan,Jiangsu Province,has changed from a backward country in the Yangtze River delta into a highly industrialized modern city in a short period of several decades.It has not only created huge industrial output value,but also made good achievements in agriculture.The success of Kunshan provided a useful reference for the integration and the revitalization of rural areas.This paper selects a case from the local aquaculture which is most sensitive to demand fluctuation and logistics efficiency in agriculture.By studying the input-output data of aquaculture in Kunshan in 1978-2016,using data envelopment analysis to value the efficiency of Kunshan aquaculture industry,and using the Tobit model to analysis the reasons of the aquaculture of Kunshan,so as to provide policy recommendations for regional economic development.

关 键 词：工业化 城镇化 农业效率 DEA-TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：S966[农业科学—水产养殖]