基于蒙特卡罗模拟的建筑中水回用效益模型应用研究  

Application of benefit model of reclaimed water in buildings based on Monte Carlo simulation

作　　者：朱天琳 王广智 倪稞 李欣 赵文莉 ZHU Tianlin;WANG Guangzhi;NI Ke;LI Xin;ZHAO Wenli(School of Environment,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China;Caupd Beijing Planning&Design Consultant Co.,Beijing 100044,China;Planning Finance and Foreign Affairs Division Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development,Beijing 100835,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学环境学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090 [2]中规院(北京)规划设计公司,北京100044 [3]住房和城乡建设部计划财务与外事司,北京100835

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第6期909-916,共8页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部政策研究项目(JY20171010)。

摘　　要：以建筑中水设施所服务的整个生命周期为尺度,对前期设计、落地建设、实际运维、废弃肃清四个阶段内发生的成本及直接效益进行识别,并以此为基础,进一步构建起以净现值为评价指标的建筑中水项目全生命周期效益预测模型,也即节约洁净水资源所带来的利益.对厦门某高校中水回用项目进行模拟分析,结果表明:该项目全生命周期效益为964.75万元,其全生命周期成本为3313.65万元,仅刚收回成本,收益甚微.水价增长率为对建筑中水回用项目全生命周期效益影响最大的因素,为更好的推广建筑中水发展,建议采取以下措施:(1)形成规模效益降本增效;(2)采取经济补贴措施或适当提高自来水价;(3)合理增加初期投资以降低后期运行方面非年度发生的大修、替换等成本.Taking the whole life cycle served by the reclaimed water facilities in the building as the scale,identifying the costs and direct benefits in the four stages of design,construction,operation and maintenance,and disposal,and on this basis,further building up the whole life cycle benefit prediction model of reclaimed water project with net present value as evaluation index,which means the benefits of saving clean water.The simulation analysis on the reclaimed water reuse project of a university in Xiamen shows that the project's whole life cycle benefit is 9.6475 million yuan,and its whole life cycle cost is 33.1365 million yuan.The growth rate of water price is the factor that has the greatest influence on the whole life cycle benefit of reclaimed water projects in buildings.In order to better promote the development of reclaimed water in buildings,the following measures are proposed:(1)Reclaimed water facilities form economies of scale to reduce costs and increase benefits;(2)Take economic subsidy measures or appropriately raise the price of water;(3)Reasonably increase initial investment to reduce non-annual repair and replacement costs in later operation.

关 键 词：全生命周期效益 建筑中水 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：TU991.67[建筑科学—市政工程]