基于概率性Budyko方程的我国可利用水资源量脆弱性评估  

Evaluation of vulnerability of water availability in China based on probabilistic Budyko equation

作　　者：赵昀皓 邢万秋 傅健宇[1,2] ZHAO Yunhao;XING Wanqiu;FU Jianyu(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2020年第2期47-52,共6页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51809073)。

摘　　要：利用概率性Budyko方程定量评估我国可利用水资源量空间分布情状及其相应的不确定性,识别我国可利用水资源量高脆弱性地区。结果表明,降水是影响可利用水资源量脆弱性的主导因素,并且较为干旱的区域具有较低不确定性;我国东北地区、西北地区、华北地区以及华东地区北部这一带状地区的可利用水资源量最易受到降水变化的影响,并且在降水减少量不同(分别减少5%、10%、15%)的情况下这种现象依然明显,可见这些地区对降水变化呈现高度的脆弱性。The probabilitic Budyko equation is used to quantitatively evaluate the spatial distribution of water availability in China and its corresponding uncertainty,and identify the regions with high vulnerability of water availability in China.The results show that precipitation is the dominant factor for the vulnerability of water availability,and the uncertainty is smaller in arid regions.The water availability in Northeast China,Northwest China,North China and East China are most susceptible to precipitation variability,and this phenomenon is still evident under different precipitation decreases(5%,10%and 15%,respectively),the regions are highly vulnerable to precipitation change.

关 键 词：概率性Budyko方程 蒸散发 可利用水资源量 水资源脆弱性 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P343[天文地球—水文科学]