中国扶贫小额信贷减贫增收效果评价  

Evaluation on the Effect of Poverty Reduction and Income Growth of China’s Microcredit for Poverty Alleviation

作　　者：章贵军[1] 罗良清[1] 奚晓军 ZHANG Gui-jun;LUO Liang-qing;XI Xiao-jun(School of Statistics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013;School of Business,Minnan Normal University,Zhangzhou 363000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院,江西南昌330013 [2]闽南师范大学商学院,福建漳州363000

出　　处：《统计学报》2020年第2期57-71,共15页Journal of Statistics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BTJ011)

摘　　要：利用针对中国40个贫困县的建档立卡贫困户的调查数据,基于贫困户的自我选择行为,采用倾向得分匹配法和处理效应模型对脱贫攻坚时期新的扶贫小额信贷项目的减贫增收效果进行了评价。研究发现,扶贫小额信贷项目对贫困户可支配收入的提升效果显著,但因果关系并不稳健,而对种养殖收入的改进效果显著且因果关系稳健。基于子样本数据的分析结果表明,扶贫小额信贷项目的减贫增收效果是"贫困瞄准"的,而非"贫困中性"的,该项目有利于大幅增加贫困户的种养殖收入,且对经济状况相对较差的低保贫困户的减贫增收效果要好于一般贫困户。Based on the survey data of poor households in 40 poor counties in China,this paper has evaluated the effect of poverty reduction and income gowth of new microcredit project in the period of poverty alleviation by means of the propensity score matching method and processing effect model on the basis of the self-selection behavior of poor households.The study finds that although the new anti-poverty microcredit project has a significant effect on increasing disposable income of poor households,the causality is not stable,while the project has a significant effect on improving the income of crop planting and livestock breeding with stable causality.The results of sub-sample data analysis show that the effect of poverty alleviation microcredit project is"povertytargeting"rather than"poverty-neutral".So poverty alleviation microcredit project is conducive to greatly increasing the income of poor households in crop planting and livestock breeding,and the effect is better for poor households with relatively poor economic conditions than the general poor households.

关 键 词：小额信贷 减贫增收 贫困瞄准 处理效应模型 倾向得分匹配法 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]