邻避运动演化的涌现机理及其仿真:基于SD模型  

Evolution Mechanism and Simulation of Nimbys Movement:Based on SD Model

作　　者：彭小兵[1] 李味恒 PENG Xiao-bing;LI Wei-heng(School of Public Administration/Research Center for Public Economy and Public Policy,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学公共管理学院,公共经济与公共政策研究中心,重庆400044

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期54-64,共11页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71573024)“基于邻避效应涌现机制的环境群体性事件产生机理与治理研究”;中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项(No.CD—JKXBl4001,2018CDXYGG0054)。

摘　　要：邻避运动是环境社会冲突的重要形式,蕴含着升级为环境群体性事件的社会风险。邻避运动的演变诱因与演进路径的复杂性,使得邻避运动到环境群体性事件的转化过程依然缺乏一个有力的解释框架。基于涌现理论,构建邻避运动演化的复杂系统科学SD模型,揭示邻避运动的涌现机理及其向“环境群体性事件”转化的内在逻辑、演进路径。邻避运动的涌现生成是系统生成主体、内在生成机制、外在生成机制相互之间多层次叠加的复杂作用过程,并在突破自组织临界态后即可升级为环境群体性事件;相关事件的仿真表明,防治环境群体性事件,要控制邻避运动的临界范围,强化信息披露,优化互联网生态。Nimbys Movement is the important form of the conflict between environment and society,and contains social risk to be developed to environmental mass disturbance.The complexity of the cause of its evolution and its evolutional path makes the transformation process from Nimbys Movement to environmental mass disturbance still short of a powerful explanation framework.Based on emergence theory,this paper constructs complex systematic science SD model of Nimbys Movement,and reveals its emergence mechanism and its inner logic and evolution path to be transformed into“environmental mass disturbance”.The emergence of Nimbys Movement is a complex process of interactive multiple overlaps between systematic emergence subject,inner emergence mechanism and external emergence mechanism,and goes up to environmental mass disturbance after the breakthrough of the critical state of self-organization.The simulation of“Lianyungang Anti-nuclear Rubbish Event”shows that the prevention of environmental mass disturbance should control the critical scope of Nimbys Movement,strengthen information disclosure and optimize internet ecology.

关 键 词：邻避运动 环境群体性事件 涌现机理 SD模型 信息披露 互联网生态 

分 类 号：C913.31[经济管理]