货币政策协调与产业结构“非线性”优化  

Monetary Policy Coordination and Industrial Structure Nonlinear Optimization

作　　者：刘祖基 刘希鹏 LIU Zuji;LIU Xipeng(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Information Management and Engineering,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学信息管理与工程学院,上海200433

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2020年第2期59-67,共9页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：货币政策在不同经济时期对产业结构的传导效果和作用机制明显不同。本文构建了一个带有时变转换概率的马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型,并应用该模型研究了不同经济状态下中国货币政策对产业结构优化的差异性影响。研究发现:在经济萧条时期,产业结构优化程度较低,以银行间7天拆借利率为货币政策中介目标的宽松性货币政策对产业结构优化升级具有促进作用,但作用效果较弱;在经济繁荣和经济平稳时期,产业结构优化程度较高,以银行间7天拆借利率为货币政策中介目标的紧缩性货币政策对产业结构优化升级具有促进作用,并且作用效果较强。Because the transmission effect and mechanism of monetary policy on the industrial structure in different economic periods are significantly different, this paper builds a Markov system of vector transformation autoregressive model with time-varying transition probability, and applies this model to study the different effects of monetary policy on industrial structure optimization in different economic states. The results show that: in the period of economic depression, the optimization degree of industrial structure is relatively low, and the loose monetary policy which takes the inter-bank 7-day lending rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy can promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, but the effect is weak;In the period of economic prosperity and economic stability, the degree of industrial structure optimization is relatively high. The tightening monetary policy, which takes the inter-bank 7-day lending rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy, has a promoting effect on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and has a strong effect.

关 键 词：货币政策 产业结构 经济状态 非线性效应 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F121.3