人民币汇率失衡对我国汽车产业进出口贸易影响研究  

Research on the Impacts of RMB Exchange Rate Misalignment on Chinese Automobile Industry Import and Export Trade

作　　者：谢非 刘超 Xie Fei;Liu Chao(School of Economics and Finance,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing,400054)

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学经济金融学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《重庆社会科学》2020年第3期51-67,共17页Chongqing Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“贸易摩擦及人民币汇率失衡对我国进出口行业影响的异质性研究”(19XJY017)。

摘　　要：本研究基于2005年第3季度至2019年第1季度相关经济数据,通过BEER模型测算样本期人民币汇率失衡程度;基于同期我国汽车产业进出口贸易数据,通过VAR模型分析了汇率失衡对我国汽车产业进出口贸易的影响。研究表明:样本期内人民币汇率高估与低估交替出现,汇率失衡程度最高为8.57%,其余时段汇率失衡程度基本保持在6%以内;汇率失衡是汽车产业进口和出口的Granger因果原因;汇率失衡对我国汽车产业进出口贸易的影响存在差异,汇率低估有利于汽车产业出口,汇率高估有利于汽车产业进口,汇率失衡对汽车产业出口贸易的影响大于对进口贸易的影响。本研究提出政府应完善宏观经济政策、合理引导市场预期、加快人民币国际化进程;企业应增强汇率风险意识,恰当使用外汇衍生工具对冲汇率风险等对策建议。Based on the relevant economic data from the third quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2019,the study use Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate(BEER)model to measure RMB exchange rate misalignment.Based on the data of China's automobile industry import and export trade during the same period,the study use Vector Autoregression(VAR)model to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on china's automobile industry import and export trade.The study found that during the sample period,the RMB exchange rate overvaluation and undervaluation alternated,the RMB exchange rate misalignment was up to 8.57%,and the RMB exchange rate misalignment during the rest of the period remained basically within 6%.RMB exchange rate misalignment is the cause of Granger causality in the import and export of the China's automobile industry.The RMB exchange rate misalignment has different effects on the import and export trade of china’s automobile industry.The undervaluation of exchange rate is conducive to the export of automobile industry.The overvaluation of exchange rate is conducive to the import of automobile industry.The study proposes that the government should improve macroeconomic policies,reasonably guide market expectations,and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.Enterprises should enhance exchange rate risk awareness and appropriately use foreign exchange derivatives to hedge exchange rate risks.

关 键 词：人民币汇率失衡 汽车产业 BEER模型 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]