四川盆地天然气产量增长趋势预测  

Prediction on growth trend of gas production in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：余果 李海涛 曾青松 方一竹 陈艳茹 Yu Guo;Li Haitao;Zeng Qingsong;Fang Yizhu;Chen Yanru(Exploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院,610041 [2]中国石油西南油气田公司

出　　处：《天然气勘探与开发》2020年第1期1-7,共7页Natural Gas Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油西南油气田公司科学研究与技术项目“四川盆地天然气发展战略--资源储量产量转化规律及增长趋势预测研究”(编号:20190310-03)。

摘　　要：天然气产量预测研究,对于国家能源战略制定、区域天然气产业链协调发展、油公司投资决策等都具有重要的意义。为此,从四川盆地天然气资源地质与开发特点出发,选取适宜四川盆地特点的3种预测模型,通过对翁氏模型、Weibull模型、灰色预测模型算法的改进,开展四川盆地天然气产量预测研究。模型预测结果表明:①三种预测模型对四川盆地天然气产量发展趋势都有着较乐观的预测结果。由于各自数学原理不同,预测结果中峰值时间、峰值产气量、峰值产气量发生时的累积产气量存在差异。②三种模型预测2030年的年产气量在(786~856)×10~8 m^3之间,符合四川盆地天然气的发展形势,其预测结果可靠。③改进翁氏模型预测产量峰值时间出现在2047年,峰值产量1453.28×10~8m^3;改进Weibull模型预测产量峰值时间出现在2051年,峰值产量1750.38×10~8 m^3;改进灰色预测模型预测产量峰值时间出现在2050年,峰值产量1828.64×10~8 m^3。Some studies to predict natural-gas production are of great significance to establish a national energy strategy, maintain a coordinated development of regional gas industry chain, and make an investment decision for oil companies. So, three prediction models suitable for Sichuan Basin were selected based on geological and development characteristics of gas resources in this basin. Then, gas production in Sichuan Basin was predicted by improving the algorithms of Weng’s model, Weibull model, and Grey prediction model. Results show that(1) these three models present relatively optimistic results to predict a development trend of gas production in Sichuan Basin, but they are different in peak time, peak production, and cumulative production while the moment peak production occurs just because their mathematical principles are different;(2) the production in 2030 predicted by these three models will be in the range of(786-856)×10~8 m^3, which conforms to an actual situation of gas development in Sichuan Basin. Obviously, the prediction results are reliable;and(3) according to results predicted from the improved Weng’s model, the peak production will appear in the year of 2047 achieving 1 453.28×10~8 m^3;by the improved Weibull model, the peak in 2051 reaching 1750.38×10~8 m^3;and by the improved Grey prediction model, the peak in 2050 attaining 1 828.64×10~8 m^3, respectively.

关 键 词：四川盆地 天然气 产量预测 翁氏模型 威布尔模型 灰色预测 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]