美国经济周期百年观察  

A Centennial Review of the US Business Cycle

作　　者：杨盼盼[1] YANG Panpan

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2020年第1期1-24,122,共25页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：美国经济是否将陷入衰退是近一段时期以来,国际宏观经济与国际政治领域的一个重要议题,对衰退的探讨取决于对经济周期的理解。本文尝试从一个长期的历史视角对美国经济周期进行分析。本文首先从全球经济放缓、美国经济预期分化和中美关系复杂化的视角,分析了开展美国经济周期问题研究的相关背景。随后梳理了1854年以来,美国经历的33个经济周期,指出美国经济周期总体呈现出变长和变稳定的趋势,收缩期变短而扩张期变长。基于经济结构性变化、现代宏观经济政策和国际宏观经济政策协调的三个理由,本文对美国经济周期拉长的特征进行解释。最后,本文从美国经济自身的视角和全球经济的视角,对美国经济周期所呈现的特征进行分析和解读。Whether the US economy will move into recession has been an important issue in international macroeconomics as well as international politics recently.The discussion of recession depends on the understanding of business cycle.This paper attempts to analyze the US business cycle from a long-term historical perspective.This paper first analyzes the relevant background of the research on the US business cycle from the perspectives of global economic slowdown,divergent expectation on the US economy,and complicated Sino-US relations.Then this paper reviews 33 patterns of US business cycles since 1854 and finds that the US business cycle has in general become longer and more stable,with shorter contraction periods and longer expansion periods.These characteristics can be explained by the factors of structural changes in the economy,modern macroeconomic policy,and international macroeconomic policy coordination.Finally,this paper discusses the characteristics of the US business cycle from both the perspectives of the American and global economy.

关 键 词：美国经济 经济周期 经济结构性变化 宏观经济政策 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济]