美国经济增长的动力与阻力  

American Economic Growth:Drivers and Challenges

作　　者：黄海洲 刘刚 HUANG Haizhou;LIU Gang

机构地区：[1]中国国际金融股份有限公司

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2020年第1期25-39,122,123,共17页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：从人口增长、科技进步和资本投入这三个驱动增长的长期结构性因素看,尽管人口增长和科技进步目前都不处于美国历史上最有利的阶段,客观上造成了美国对资本投入的依赖,但是横向对比其他发达经济体和新兴经济体,美国在这三个结构性因素上都占据较大优势。在中短期的政策选择上,美联储持续的低利率环境和资产购买政策不仅有效地降低了实体经济与政府的融资成本,也为应对未来的经济下滑和衰退打出了提前量,而财政扩张与政府债务累积有效地帮助了其他部门完成去杠杆。此外,还有特朗普政府2018年以来在推动减税、放松金融监管和其他监管的努力。贸易摩擦不断升级会带来经济下行的风险,体现为对企业投资意愿的打压,以及逆全球化对企业投资回报率和利润率的侵蚀。2020年是美国的大选年,大选带来的政治变数与贸易摩擦等问题交织在一起,值得密切关注。短期内,得益于美联储快速响应的"预防式降息",美国的衰退风险已经得到缓解。即便美国经济未来走向衰退,其破坏性和严重程度或不会像此前的2008年金融危机,更多的可能是经济下行相对温和较短期的衰退。The current economic expansion cycle is the longest in US history,and its resilience continues to beat market expectation.In terms of the three long-term structural factors that drive growth,i.e.labor,technology,and capitals,although US is not at its historical best regarding population growth and technological progress,which caused its reliance on capital investment,but its competitive advantages are still apparent compared to other developed and emerging markets.Regarding the medium/short-term policy choices,Fed’s continuous low rate policy and assets purchases have not only effectively lowered the funding costs for real economy and federal government,but also provided buffer against further recession.Meanwhile,fiscal expansion and government leverage-up helped the deleveraging of other sectors,not to mention Trump administration’s policy effects in cutting tax,deregulating financial and other industries.However,the ongoing trade frictions will bring downside risks,by weighing on corporate capex and erosion of profitability due to the disruption of global value chain.Moreover,as 2020 is the US presential election year,political and policy uncertainties,which may intertwine with the ongoing trade frictions,still merit close attention.In the near term,thanks to Fed’s insurance cuts in 2019,recession risk has been alleviated partially.But even if the US economy goes into recession in the future,it might be a relatively mild one,at least less destructive than 2008.

关 键 词：美国经济 经济周期 贸易摩擦 美元闭环 经济衰退风险 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济]