美国经济的开放结构:兼论后危机时代美国贸易政策转向  

How Open Is the US Economy:Probing Shifts in the US Trade Policy in the Post-crisis Era

作　　者：马弘[1] 秦若冰 MA Hong;QIN Ruobing

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院经济系

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2020年第1期56-71,124,共17页Contemporary American Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71673160);清华大学自主科研计划(项目编号:2017THZWZX07)的资助。

摘　　要：美国经济的开放程度与结构,对世界经济有着深远影响。自20世纪70年代以来,伴随技术革命和劳动生产率的提高,国际产业分工的格局发生重大调整。以美国为代表的发达国家步入去工业化进程,制造业就业占总就业人口的比重不断下降,与此同时,货物贸易逆差不断扩大。2017年以来,美国贸易政策日趋保守,从倡导和推动多边贸易体制大步后撤,转变为怀疑和动摇深度全球化的基础。特朗普政府多次强调以"美国优先"取代"全球主义",频繁利用"301"条款、反倾销和反补贴调查等贸易保护措施,对来自中国等主要贸易伙伴国的进口产品进行打压,贸易摩擦日益加剧。本文认为美国贸易政策的转向,在很大程度上可以归结为经济和贸易结构的转变。本文梳理了美国自20世纪70年代以来在制造业、服务业、外商直接投资和对外直接投资等方面的开放程度和结构演变,并对近年来美国贸易政策的转向进行总结,以期管窥美国贸易政策转向背后的经济因素和政治因素。The openness of the US economy has profound influence on the world.With the technological revolution and the improvement of labor productivity,the pattern of international industrial division has undergone a major adjustment since the 1970s.The developed countries represented by the United States have entered the period of de-industrialization,and the proportion of manufacturing employment in total employment has been declining.Meanwhile,the trade deficit in goods has continued to expand.Since 2017,the US trade policy has become increasingly conservative,stepped back from advocating and promoting the multilateral trading system,and turned skeptical against the foundations of globalization.The Trump administration has repeatedly tried to replace the ideology of‘Globalism’with‘The American First’,and has frequently exercised protection measures,such as the Section 301,anti-dumping and antisubsidy investigations,to suppress imports from major trading partners,such as China.This article argues that changes in the economic and trade structure serve as the main reason for the shifts in US trade policy.In this paper,we focus on summarizing the shifts in American trade policies with respect to the openness and evolution of manufacturing,services,foreign direct investment(FDI)and outbound direct investment(ODI)since the 1970s,which allows us to shed light on the economic determinations and political factors leading to the US trade policy shifts.

关 键 词：美国经济 货物贸易 服务贸易 外商直接投资 贸易保护 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济] F757.12