组合预测模型在武汉港集装箱吞吐量预测中的应用  

Application of Combined Forecasting Model in Forecasting Container Throughput of Wuhan Port

作　　者：蒋惠园[1] 张安顺 Jiang Huiyuan;Zhang Anshun(School of Transportation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《物流技术》2020年第2期44-47,140,共5页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：为使港口集装箱吞吐量预测的误差更小,精度更高,提出运用弹性系数法、灰色模型法、三次指数平滑法的组合预测模型,预测了武汉港未来特征年的集装箱吞吐量,研究结果表明,组合模型相比单一预测方法能够降低误差、提高精度,预测结果更加理想。In this paper,to reduce the error and improve the accuracy of port throughput forecasting,we proposed a combined forecasting model which incorporated the elastic coefficient method,the grey model method,and the cubic exponential smoothing method,used it to forecast the container throughput of Wuhan Port in the future characteristic year.The finding showed that compared to any single forecasting method,the combined model could reduce the error and improve the accuracy of port throughput forecasting,arriving at more ideal forecasting results.

关 键 词：集装箱吞吐量 武汉港 预测模型 组合预测 

分 类 号：F552.6[经济管理—产业经济] F224