加拿大水域航运事故灰色关联分析与区间预测  

Grey Incidence Analysis and Interval Prediction of the Shipping Accident in Canada Waters

作　　者：陈丽宁 神和龙[2] 祝鸿 CHEN Li-ning;SHEN He-long;ZHU Hong(School of Navigation,Guangzhou Maritime University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510725,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Dynamic Simulation & Control for Ministry of Transport,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]广州航海学院海运学院,广东广州510725 [2]大连海事大学航海仿真与控制交通行业重点实验室,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《广州航海学院学报》2020年第1期25-30,共6页Journal of Guangzhou Maritime University

基　　金：工信部装函[2018]473号;广东省创新强校项目(2018F410401)。

摘　　要：为增强中国-加拿大贸易货物水上运输的安全,对加拿大水域航运事故进行了灰色关联分析,并建立了灰色区间预测模型.计算了各类航运事故序列与航运事故总数序列的4种灰色关联度.接近关联度反映了序列空间相对位置和几何形状的相似性,基于接近关联度的事故致因排序较准确.加拿大水域航运事故总数序列为振荡序列,建立灰色区间模型预测其范围,该模型精度较高.用该灰色区间预测模型预测了2019-2022航运事故总数范围,预测结果可用,未出现病态.For improving the carriage safety of trade goods by water between China and Canada,a grey incidence analysis is done for the shipping accident in Canada waters,and a grey interval prediction model is built.4 kinds of grey incidence degree between the sequence of the number of each type shipping accident and that of the total number of the shipping accident are computed.The nearness degree of incidence reflects relative space position and geometric similarities between two sequences,and the accident causation sequence based on the nearness degree of incidence is accurate.The sequence of the total number of the shipping accident in Canada waters is a oscillation sequence,a grey interval prediction model is built to predict its range,and the model is accurate.The grey interval prediction model is applied to predict the total number range of shipping accidents in 2019—2012.The predicted results are available,without ill-posed.

关 键 词：航运事故 灰色关联分析 灰色关联度 灰色区间预测 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]