食品安全丑闻报道与产销价格传导——基于中国猪肉市场的经验研究  

Food Safe Scandal Media Coverageand Vertical Price Transmission--An Empirical Research from Chinese Pork Market

作　　者：文洪星 韩青[2] 刘锦怡 WEN Hongxing;HAN Qing;LIU Jinyi

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学国民经济研究中心,广州510320 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [3]湖南农业大学经济学院,长沙410128

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2020年第2期117-132,共16页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于市场导向的畜牧业标准化运行机理与绩效研究”(编号:71573257);现代农业产业技术体系北京市生猪产业创新团队项目(编号:BAIC02)。

摘　　要：本文利用主流媒体对猪肉质量安全事件的新闻报道构造食品安全丑闻报道指数,首次从媒体报道视角分析食品安全丑闻对中国猪肉供应链产销价格传导的影响。平滑转换误差修正模型检验结果表明:(1)食品安全丑闻报道是决定产销价格传导关系的门槛变量,当食品安全丑闻报道指数处于门槛值以内时,产销价格传导表现为线性关系,超出门槛值以后,则表现为非线性关系,但更多时候表现为非线性关系;(2)食品安全丑闻报道对产销价格具有非对称冲击效应,生猪价格比猪肉价格对冲击的反应程度更大、持续时间更长。这种非对称冲击效应不仅会打破产销价格波动的固有规律,也会加剧供应链上福利分配不均衡,处于弱势地位的养殖户更容易遭受福利损失。进一步采用向量自回归模型进行脉冲响应分析,结果仍然支持上述结论。This article uses the main media coverage of pork safety incidents to construct a food scandal media coverage index,then we analyze the impact of media reports on vertical price transmission in China’s pork supply chain.The results of the Smoothing Transmission Error Correction Model show that the food scandal media coverage is a threshold variable that determines the transmission relationship between farm-wholesale prices.When the food scandal media coverage index is within the threshold,the transmission relationship between farm-wholesale prices is linear.After the threshold value,it shows a nonlinear relationship.The food scandal media coverage has an asymmetric impact on farm-wholesale prices,and hog price responds to the shock more strongly than pork price and lasts longer.This asymmetric shock not only breaks the inherent laws of farm price fluctuations and wholesale price fluctuations,but also exacerbates the uneven distribution of benefits on the supply chain,and farmers are more vulnerable to welfare losses.The Vector Autoregressive Model is used to analyze the impulse response,and the results show that the above conclusion is robust.

关 键 词：食品安全丑闻 媒体报道 价格非对称传导 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] G212[文化科学—新闻学]