中国汽车制造业生产格局时空演变特征与前景展望  

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of China’s Automobile Manufacturing Production Pattern and Prospects

作　　者：巫细波[1] Wu Xibo

机构地区：[1]广州市社会科学院,广州510410

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2020年第2期121-129,共9页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划课题“粤港澳大湾区先进制造业布局研究”(GD19CYJ11)。

摘　　要：基于1979—2018年中国省际汽车产量,采用Theil系数、马尔科夫链等方法分析中国汽车制造业生产格局演变特征及趋势,研究发现:改革开放40多年来,中国汽车制造业生产格局由高度集中演变为相对集中,省际汽车产量的Top3占比由58.6%下降至32.22%,Top5占比由74.14%下降至48.64%,Top7占比由82.63%下降至60.79%;中国汽车制造业经历了快速增长、高速增长、中低速增长3个发展阶段;中国汽车制造业的整车产能利用率偏低,汽车生产与市场的空间分离呈现增大趋势;汽车产量的Theil系数呈现下降趋势,不同年份的总体差异主要来源于区域内部差异;中国省际汽车产量四种类型(高产量、较高产量、中低产量及低产量)保持不变的概率均大于0.85,不同类型的转换仅限于相邻类型之间。展望“十四五”时期,中国汽车生产规模仍将保持在2500万辆以上,改善过于依赖合资企业的发展模式,强化中国品牌汽车企业对产业空间的主导能力,通过兼并重组提高产能利用率,围绕“一带一路”沿线地区加快国际化进程,积极构建面向国内外两个市场的产业空间布局等是中国汽车制造业“十四五”时期的重要任务。Based on provincial automobile production from 1979 to 2018,this paper uses Theil index and Markov chain to analyze the evolution characteristics and trends of China’s automobile manufacturing production pattern.The result shows that:In the 40 years since Reform and Opening up,the production pattern of China’s automobile manufacturing industry has evolved from being highly concentrated to relatively concentrated.The top 3 share of provincial automobile production has dropped from 58.6%to 32.22%,the top 5 share has dropped from 74.14%to 48.64%,and the top 7 share Decreased from 82.63%to 60.79%;The development process can be divided into three development stages of rapid growth,high-speed growth,and low-to-medium-speed growth;The utilization rate of China’s automobile capacity is low,and the spatial separation between automobile production and market is increasing;The Theil index of provincial automobile production shows a downward trend,The overall difference in automobile production in different years mainly comes from regional differences;The Markov chain method shows that the probability that the four types of provincial automobile production in China(high output,medium-high output,medium-low output,and low output)remain unchanged is greater than 0.85,and the conversion of different types is limited to adjacent types.Looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan period,this paper believes that the scale of China’s automobile production will still remain above 25 million units,China’s automobile manufacturing industry has several important tasks including improving over-reliance on development model of joint ventures,strengthening leading ability of Chinese brand auto companies to industrial space,increasing capacity utilization through mergers and reorganizations,and accelerating process of internationalization around the areas along the Belt and Road Initiative,actively constructing an industrial space layout for both domestic and foreign markets.

关 键 词：时空演变 产销空间分离 THEIL系数 马尔科夫链 “十四五”时期 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]