控制人口能缓解城市通勤问题吗——基于人群异质性通勤模式的比较分析  

Limiting Urban Population Scale Matters on Relieving Congestion--A Comparative Analysis between Chinese Urban Resident Population and Migrant Population

作　　者：李杰伟[1] 韩立彬 LI Jiewei;HAN Libin

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《学术月刊》2020年第2期58-67,共10页Academic Monthly

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“世界级大城市缓解通勤的政策组合及对上海的借鉴研究—基于长三角一体化的背景”(2018BJB008)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文利用“2011年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据”和“2010年全国城镇住户基本情况抽样调查数据”,对比分析了中国城市流动人口和常住人口的通勤特征。研究发现,流动人口的平均通勤时间远低于常住人口;并且随着城市人口规模增加,其通勤时间增加的速度慢于常住人口。因此,平均来看流动人口对城市平均通勤时间没有显著的影响。进一步的分析发现,在从事职业方面,有较高比例的流动人口从事经商、商贩、餐饮等商业服务业,这些职业从业人员通勤时间短,且通勤时间对城市人口规模变化并不敏感;在居住类型方面,流动人口中有很高比例的人通过租房或者雇主提供的住房解决居住问题,他们通勤时间较短,并且通勤时间不随城市人口规模增加而发生较大变化。因此流动人口呈现出短距离通勤比例较高的特征。根据本文的研究结果,治理城市拥堵时,须慎重采取简单控制人口规模的方式。This paper analyzed migrant population’s commuting characteristics,using the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey 2011,and compared them with resident population.We found migrant population’s average commuting time was much lower than that of resident population,and as urban population increased,average commuting time of migrant population increased more slowly than the resident population,so when we controlled the numbers of resident population,the numbers of migrant population didn’t influence the cities’average commuting time significantly.The main reason of these was there was a large proportion of migrant population commuted in short distance,which could be explained by migrant population’s characteristics of occupation and residence:firstly,a high proportion of migrant population was engaged in business services such as business,traders,restaurants,etc.,and their commuting time was short on average and increased slowly when urban population increased;secondly,a high percentage of migrant population lived in rented houses or houses provided by employer,and their commuting time were also shorter than the people lived in houses purchased or built by themselves,and increased slowly when urban population increased.According to the research of this paper,we can5t relieve congestion through limiting urban population scale.

关 键 词：通勤时间 流动人口 人口规模 通勤时间稳定法则 

分 类 号：F572[经济管理—产业经济]