一种基于WPF方法的SEIR传染病动力学模型仿真研究  

Study on SEIR infectious disease dynamics model simulation based on WPF

作　　者：陈恩 段德光 李昊 陶学强 高树田 CHEN En;DUAN De-guang;LI Hao;TAO Xue-qiang;GAO Shu-tian(Institute of Medical Support Technology,Academy of System Engineering of Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA,Tianjin 300161,China)

机构地区：[1]军事科学院系统工程研究院卫勤保障技术研究所,天津300161 [2]军事科学院系统工程研究院卫勤保障技术研究所卫勤保障体系论证与评估研究室,天津300161

出　　处：《医疗卫生装备》2020年第3期1-6,12,共7页Chinese Medical Equipment Journal

基　　金：军内科研重点项目(JK20182A020170)。

摘　　要：目的:通过对传染病动力学模型的仿真研究,提升应对传染病疫情处理能力。方法:以SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infected-removed)模型为基础,结合WPF(Windows Presentation Fundation)编程,建立一种具有潜伏期的传染病传播过程的数字化、图形化的仿真模型。以新型冠状病毒肺炎在湖北省的传播过程为例,计算确诊人数、治愈人数、死亡人数的仿真结果与真实数据的误差。结果:仿真模型预测短期数据误差率在3%以内,并能根据现有参数信息仿真未来长期走势;预测结果表明疫情征兆期、暴发期、高峰期确诊人数主要受到潜伏期人群数量影响,衰退期的周期主要受治愈人群康复率影响。结论:基于WPF的SEIR仿真模型可以为突发公共卫生事件防护工作中疫情分析、疫情研判、应急预案提供辅助决策支持。Objective To enhance the response ability for infectious disease epidemics by infectious disease dynamics simulation.Methods A digital graphical model simulating the spread of the infectious diseases with an incubation period was developed with susceptible-exposed-infected-removed(SEIR)model and Windows Presentation Foundation(WPF)program-ming.With the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province as an example,the errors were calculated between the numbers of confirmed cases,healed cases and death cases by simulation and actual statistics.Results The simulation model developed had the error lower than 3%when used to predict the cases in short term,and could simulate the future long-term trend based on the obtained data;it's pointed out the numbers of confirmed cases at symptom period,outbreak period and peak period were affected by those of latent cases,and the length of the decline period was related to the cure rate of the healed cases.Conclusion The simulation model developed facilitates epidemic analysis,situation determination and emergency plan preparation during the responses to public medical emergencies.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 病毒传染病动力学 WPF SEIR 模型仿真 预测 

分 类 号：R318[医药卫生—生物医学工程] TP319[医药卫生—基础医学]