中国农村人口外流的时空演化及其驱动机制  

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Rural Population Outflow and Its Mechanism in China

作　　者：郭远智 周扬[1,2] 刘彦随 Guo Yuanzhi;Zhou Yang;Liu Yansui(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学》2020年第1期50-59,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41931293,41871183,41601172);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA23070301)资助。

摘　　要：以农村户籍人口和常住人口及两者表征的农村人口外流率为研究对象,利用"五普"和"六普"数据探讨了中国农村人口外流的演化及其空间格局,在预选取影响因素的基础上,基于空间计量模型剖析了县域农村人口外流率的地域分异机制。结果显示:农村人口发展演化可划分为缓慢发展阶段、大量外流阶段、农业转移人口市民化发展阶段3个时期;全国县域农村人口外流率呈现出程度不断加深的态势,农业户籍人口和乡村常住人口的集中度下降明显,并呈现出明显的空间聚类和空间正相关性;平均海拔、人均GDP、城乡居民收入比、第一产业占比、城镇化率、道路密度、受教育水平、人均固定资产投资与农村人口外流率呈现出正相关关系,而人均耕地面积、农民人均纯收入、乡村从业人员占比与农村人口外流率呈现出负相关关系。Human is the key to social and economic development, and plays a decisive role in rural evolution.However, influenced by urban-rural dual structure, there are large population outflow in rural China, which makes the strategy of rural revitalization lack of human capital support. Therefore, to scientifically promote the implementation of rural revitalization in the new era, it is necessary to study the rural population outflow. Using datasets of 2000 and 2010 population census of the People’s Republic of China by county, this research analyzed the evolution and spatial pattern of rural population outflow in China. Then it explored the mechanism of regional differentiation of outflow rate of rural population(ORRP), which was reflected by the ratio of rural hukou-registered population and rural residential population. Results showed that the development of rural population in China from 1978 to present could be divided into three stages i.e., slow development stage(1978-1995), massive outflow stage(1995-2014) and citizenship of agricultural transfer population(since2014). From 2000 to 2010, ORRP at county level in China generally showed an upward trend, the centralization of rural hukou-registered and residential population declined obviously. From the perspective of spatial pattern,they all showed significant spatial clustering and positive spatial correlation. In 2000, there were 76.06% counties with ORRP ranging from 100% to 150%, and only 14.01% of the counties’ ORRP were less than 100%,which were mainly located in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Xinjiang and the border areas of northeast China. By 2010, the proportion of counties with ORRP less than 100% fell to 5.20%, concentrating in Xinjiang, and there were also a few counties in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Northeast China. Based on pre-selected influencing factors, estimated results of spatial error model(SEM) indicated that elevation, per capita GDP, urban–rural income ratio, proportion of primary industry, urbanization rate, road density, educational attainmen

关 键 词：农村人口外流 空间误差模型 城乡关系 乡村振兴 乡村可持续发展 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]