考虑数据异常及新旧程度影响有界性的地基沉降预测方法  

A Prediction Method of Foundation Settlement Considering Anomalyand Newness-oldness Degree Influence Boundedness of Measured Data

作　　者：曹文贵[1] 谭涛 CAO Wengui;TAN Tao(Institute of Geotechnical Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学岩土工程研究所,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期37-43,共7页Journal of Hunan University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879104);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130161110017)。

摘　　要：在现有沉降组合模型预测方法研究基础上,通过考虑实测沉降数据新旧程度及其影响的有界性特点,提出了度量实测沉降数据新旧程度的新鲜度函数分析模型,它能同时反映实测点与预测点之间的时间距离和实测误差以及实测数据新旧程度影响有界性对沉降预测的影响.基于统计学理论提出了排除异常实测数据引起沉降预测不合理的实测数据样本处理方法.利用上述模型与方法,提出了可反映实测沉降数据异常和新旧程度及其影响程度有界性的地基或路基沉降组合预测新方法.通过工程实例计算以及本文与现有同类方法预测与实测结果的比较分析,表明了本文地基或路基预测模型与方法的合理性与优越性.Based on the research of prediction methods for foundation or subgrade settlement by existing combi-nation model,firstly,an analytical model of freshness function is proposed to measure the newness-oldness degree of measured settlement data,considering the features of newness-oldness degree and its influence boundedness of mea-sured settlement data.The proposed method can also reflect the effect of time distance between the measured and pre-dicted point,measured error and boundedness of newness-oldness as well as its influence degree of the measured data on the settlement prediction.Secondly,based on statistical theory,a disposal method of measured data sample is de-veloped which can exclude the unreasonable settlement prediction caused by some abnormal measured data.Then,us-ing the above-mentioned model and method,a new method for combined prediction of foundation or subgrade settle-ment is put forward,which can reflect the influence of abnormality of measured settlement data,their oldness and newness degree and boundedness of its influence degree on settlement prediction of foundation or subgrade.Finally,it shows the rationality and superiority of the proposed model and method by calculation of actual engineering examples and comparison and analysis among the prediction results by the proposed and the existing similar methods as well as the measured results.

关 键 词：地基或路基 沉降预测 组合模型 新鲜度函数 实测数据异常 实测数据新旧程度影响有界性 

分 类 号：TU470[建筑科学—结构工程]