居住证制度对在沪流动人口城市居留意愿的影响——基于上海市居住证评估调查的实证分析  

The Impact of Residence Permit System on Residence Intention of the Floating Population in Shanghai:An Empirical Analysis Based on Shanghai Residence Permit Assessment Survey

作　　者：吕明阳 陆蒙华 LV Mingyang;LU Menghua(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《人口与社会》2020年第1期65-79,共15页Population and Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“整体性治理:应对老龄社会的公共管理与公共政策重构研究”(71490735)。

摘　　要：以推拉理论为理论框架,使用复旦大学人口与发展政策研究中心2018年11月有关上海市居住证评估的微观调查数据,运用Probit模型和倾向得分匹配(PSM)的计量方法,研究居住证制度对在沪流动人口城市居留意愿的影响。研究结果表明居住证制度会显著提高在沪流动人口的城市居留意愿,通过稳健性检验倾向得分匹配法(PSM)控制选择性偏差后,上述研究结果保持稳健。交互分析结果说明,居住证对租房的在沪流动人口的城市居留意愿具有抑制作用,对自购房的在沪流动人口的城市居留意愿具有促进作用。此外,异质性检验的结果表明,相较于农村户籍在沪流动人口,居住证制度对城镇户籍在沪流动人口的城市居留意愿影响更大。并且,在沪流动人口个体特征、在沪工作生活情况、心理因素和家乡留守情况对其城市居留意愿都产生了显著影响。Based on Push and Pull Theory,this paper studies the impact of the residence permit system on the residence intention of floating population in Shanghai by using the Probit model and the measurement method of propensity score matching(PSM)based on the micro-survey data of Shanghai residence permit assessment from the center for population and development policy research of Fudan University in November 2018.The results show that the residence permit system can significantly improve the willingness of the floating population in Shanghai to stay in the city.After controlling for selectivity bias by the robustness test propensity score matching(PSM),the above results remained robust.The results of the interactive analysis show that the residence permit can inhibit the urban residence intention of the floating population in Shanghai who rent a house,and promote the urban residence intention of the floating population in Shanghai who buy a house In addition,the results of the heterogeneity test show that the residence permit system has a greater impact on the urban residence intention of the urban registered floating population than the rural registered ones in Shanghai.In addition,individual characteristics,working and living conditions,psychological factors and the left-behind situation in their hometowns jointly influence the residence intention of the floating population in Shanghai.

关 键 词：居住证 城市户籍 在沪流动人口 城市居留意愿 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]