安居才能团聚?--保障性住房对流动人口家庭化迁移的推动效应研究  

Settling Down for a Reunion? A Study on the Promoting Effect of Affordable Housing on Family Migration of Migrants

作　　者：李勇辉[1] 李小琴[1] 沈波澜 Li Yonghui;Li Xiaoqin;Shen Bolan(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《财经研究》2019年第12期32-45,共14页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金(16BJK079);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2018B005)。

摘　　要：人口流动的一个重要特征是家庭化流动趋势加强,子女是否随迁不仅会影响到家庭的幸福,也反映了中国城镇化的速度、结构和质量。由于城乡分割的二元户籍制度的限制和住房制度设计的缺陷,流动人口子女留守的现象仍然较为普遍。文章利用全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,在考虑稀有事件偏差和内生性的情况下检验了保障性住房对子女随迁的影响。研究表明:保障性住房可以减少由于子女随迁所导致的退出劳动力市场和房租增长的负面影响,提高流动人口子女随迁的可能性。但是,在我国双体制住房市场结构中,保障性住房对流动人口的供给存在着门槛效应,流动人口保障性住房的整体可得性水平较低。同时,在户籍制度所产生的"社会屏蔽"作用下农业户籍流动人口在家庭化迁移过程中受制度性因素的影响更大且对保障性住房的依赖性更高。文章的研究揭示了在人口城镇化过程中迁移模式的转变与住房供给之间的匹配矛盾,阐明了制度性约束对保障性住房有效供给不足的深层次影响,为在当前新一轮的住房制度改革中应加大对流动人口公共住房供给,并建立与此相适应的新型住房保障供应体系提供了有益的启示。An important feature of population migration is the strengthening trend of family migration.Whether children migrate with their parents or not will not only affect the happiness of families,but also reflect the speed,structure and quality of China’s urbanization. Due to the limitation of the dual urban-rural division of the household registration system and the defects of the housing system design,it is still common for the children of migrants to be left behind. This paper studies the effect of affordable housing on children’s migration by using the data of China Migrant Dynamic Survey after considering the rare event bias and endogeneity bias. The study shows that affordable housing can reduce the negative impact of quitting the labor market and rent growth due to children’s migration,and increase the possibility of children’s migration. Nevertheless,in China’s two-system housing market structure,the supply of affordable housing has a threshold effect on the migrants. The overall level of affordable housing availability is relatively low. Meanwhile,under the effect of"social shield" produced by the household registration system,the rural migrants are more affected by institutional factors and rely more on affordable housing in the family migration process. This paper reveals the matching contradiction between the transition of migration pattern and housing supply in the population urbanization process,and clarifies that the deep impact of institutional constraints on the effective supply of affordable housing is expounded. It provides useful enlightenment for the current new round of housing system reform to increase the public housing supply to the migrants,and to establish a new housing security supply system.

关 键 词：流动人口 子女随迁 新型城镇化 住房保障 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济] F24