制度惯性、地方领导人更替与财政支出结构变动  

Institutional Inertia,Succession of Provincial Leaders and Changes in the Structure of Provincial Fiscal Expenditure

作　　者：姚东旻 朱泳奕 余凯 Yao Dongmin;Zhu Yongyi;Yu Kai

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心 [2]中国邮政储蓄银行浙江省分行

出　　处：《社会学研究》2020年第2期99-123,M0004,M0005,共27页Sociological Studies

基　　金：中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心“新市场财政学理论研究”的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于地方党政领导人换届视角,使用1996-2018年我国省级面板数据,采用L-峰度识别财政支出的结构变动模式。研究发现,经济建设、科教文卫支出符合间断平衡模式,而公共安全支出符合渐进主义模式。对于间断平衡类支出,现任地方领导人任期越长,与制度惯性的摩擦变大,与前任地方领导人在任期间的平均支出结构偏离越大;而对于渐进主义类支出,地方领导人因素并不能产生显著影响。本文也讨论了新任地方领导人调整支出结构的动机。经济建设支出比例方面,新任领导人更加倾向于“力争全国之上游”,而科教文卫的支出目标则是“趋于全国之均值”。This paper employs the method of L kurtosis to identify the patterns behind the changes in the structure of provincial fiscal expenditure from the perspective of the succession of provincial leaders.The analysis is based on provincial level panel data during 1996-2018 in China.The patterns for different categories of expenditure differ significantly.The fiscal expenditure on economic development conforms to the principle of punctuated equilibrium,as do the expenditures on science,education,culture,and health care(SECH).However,the fiscal expenditure on public safety follows the principle of budgetary incrementalism.For the fiscal expenditure that conforms to the principle of punctuated equilibrium,the longer the tenure of the leaders is,the stronger their personal political authority becomes,which makes it easier to change the budget structure.For the fiscal expenditure that conforms to the principle of budgetary incrementalism,the length of tenure does not have a significant impact.Furthermore,this paper identifies the motivation behind the newly appointed leaders adjustment of expenditure structure.They strive for the upper reaches in economic development and prefer to approach the national average in SECH.

关 键 词：渐进主义 间断平衡 制度惯性 财政支出 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学] D630[政治法律—政治学]