精明发展视域下城市绩效时空分异格局及影响机制  

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Performance and Its Influencing Mechanism from the Perspective of Smart Development

作　　者：魏璐瑶 陈晓红[2] 陆玉麒[1,3,4] WEI Lu-yao;CHEN Xiao-hong;LU Yu-qi(School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023;College of Geographic Science,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023;Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025 [3]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023 [4]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2020年第2期108-118,共11页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41430635)。

摘　　要：基于城市收缩和理性增长良好契合状态的精明发展视角合理测评城市绩效水平,探讨城市自然、经济、社会等子系统之间的综合协调发展路径,有利于激发城市发展潜力并实现健康发展。该文基于2000-2015年统计数据,从空间发展绩效、环境发展绩效、福利发展绩效和管理发展绩效四大目标维度构建精明发展视域下城市绩效评价指标体系,运用全局趋势分析和空间自相关分析方法探讨中国地级及以上城市绩效宏观演变趋势和空间相关性规律,结合空间变差函数和城市绩效精明分异指数比较分析精明发展视域下中国地级及以上城市绩效水平的空间异质性分布和演化成因,并利用多元回归、Tobit模型和地理探测器模型探究城市绩效时空分异格局演化的驱动机制。结果表明:1)2000-2015年精明发展视域下中国城市绩效次高值区空间布局由中东部零星分布逐渐过渡为热点式密布聚集,城市绩效水平持续转好并辐射至中国大部分地区,城市绩效东西方向异质性减弱的同时,向南北方向转化增强趋势明显;2)研究期内精明发展视域下中国城市绩效空间相关性不断弱化,区域空间辐射程度逐渐增强,城市绩效水平与空间相关性联动效应在一定程度上未实现良性共振,城市绩效精明分异局部空间演变相对稳定;3)空间发展规模、生态环境保护、社会福利保障、人力资本存量、科技创新发展、对外开放交流等驱动力相互制约关联,形成综合作用机制,显著推动精明发展视域下中国地级及以上城市绩效时空分异格局的规律性演替。This paper discusses the comprehensive and coordinated development path among natural,economic and social subsystems from the perspective of smart development,and reasonably evaluates the urban performance level based on a good fit state of urban shrinkage and rational growth in order to stimulate the potential of city development and realize the healthy development.On the basis of the statistical data from 2000 to 2015,and according to the four objectives of spatial development performance,environmental development performance,welfare development performance and management development performance,we constructed the urban performance evaluation index system from the perspective of smart development in China′s prefecture-level cities and above.First,the global trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to explore the macroscopic evolution trend and spatial correlation regularity of urban performance of the cities.Furthermore,the spatial heterogeneity distribution and evolutionary causes of urban performance of the cities from the perspective of smart development were analyzed by combining spatial variogram function with shrewd differentiation index of urban performance.Finally,we discussed the driving mechanism of the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of urban performance by using multiple regression method,Tobit model and geographic detector model.The results show that:1)The spatial distribution of sub-high-value areas of urban performance in China from the perspective of smart development shows gradual changes from sporadic distribution in the middle and east to hot-spot gathering during 2000-2015.The level of urban performance continues to get improved from hot-spot to most parts of China.In the whole areas,the heterogeneity of urban smart development performance in the east-west direction weakens while that strengthens obviously in the north-south direction.2)During the study period,the spatial correlation of urban performance from the perspective of smart development in China

关 键 词：精明发展 城市绩效 时空分异格局 影响机制 中国地级城市 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]