市场距离、需求不确定性与离岸价格  

Market Distance,Demand Uncertainty and FOB Price

作　　者：首陈霄 Shou Chenxiao(School of Business,Hunan Normal University)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《经济科学》2020年第1期21-32,共12页Economic Science

基　　金：湖南师范大学博士科研启动项目(项目编号:0531110)的资助.

摘　　要：针对文献中发现的距离与出口价格之间的正相关关系,有别于其他文献从产品质量角度的解释,本文从需求不确定性角度进行了解释。使用2005年的中国出口交易数据,本文发现,当加入距离和需求不确定性的交互项后,距离对离岸价格的正向作用完全被交互项所吸收,而距离本身的系数不再为正。因此,需求不确定性是距离影响离岸价格的重要机制。通过检验中介效应的"三步法",本文进一步发现作为存货成本间接量度的运输频次在需求不确定性和距离的交互项正向影响离岸价格过程中起到部分中介效应的作用。因此,存货成本可以部分解释距离如何通过需求不确定性对单位价格产生正向影响。本文的研究表明,为了更好地解释现实情形,贸易模型有必要将需求不确定性这一因素考虑进来。There has been much empirical evidence documenting a positive relationship between market distance and FOB(free on board)price.In contrast to most previous literature focusing on product quality,we try to explain this phenomenon with demand uncertainty.Using transaction records of Chinese exporters in 2005,we show that,after accounting for an interaction term between distance and demand uncertainty,the positive effect of distance on FOB price is completely absorbed,making the coefficient of distance no longer positive.Through the Three-Step Approach used for examining mediating effects,we further find that shipment frequency,which is used as an indirect measure for inventory costs,reacts as the partial mediating variable in the process that the interaction term between distance and demand uncertainty affects FOB prices.Hence,inventory costs can partially explain how distance affects unit price through demand uncertainty.Our study suggests that demand uncertainty is a very important channel through which distance affects FOB prices,and should be factored in trade models to better capture reality.

关 键 词：市场距离 需求不确定 离岸价格 运输频次 存货成本 

分 类 号：F740.3[经济管理—国际贸易]