分地区产业结构对财政自给能力的影响——基于面板数据模型的分析  

The Effects of Industry Structure on Regional Fiscal Status:Based on Panel Data Model Analysis

作　　者：冯采 魏冬 陈玉宇[1] Feng Cai;Wei Dong;Chen Yuyu(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《经济科学》2020年第1期33-45,共13页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“竞争中立原则下的国有企业与产业补贴问题研究”(项目编号:19CGJ040)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文选择了"净贡献"和"单位GDP贡献率"两个指标,并以其作为分析地区财政自给能力的评估标准,重新刻画了我国各地区财政自给能力和发展水平,同时围绕着产业结构对于地方政府财政自给能力的影响,从理论和实证上进行了论证。最终发现,在全国层面上,推动产业结构升级会带来正向的财政影响。分地区OLS分析表明,产业结构升级对东部地区有着显著的正向影响,对于中西部地区有着显著的负向影响,并且西部地区受到的负向影响更为突出,约为中部地区的三倍;在加入工具变量进行2SLS回归后,整体结果仍然稳健,各地区变化方向一致且整体趋势不变。同时,本文结合动态面板进行分析,建议不同的地区应当结合自身禀赋,选择不同的产业结构发展方向以获得更好的地区财政自给能力和经济发展水平。We introduce the two fiscal concepts of "net contribution" and "unit GDP contribution rate" as evaluation standards for regional fiscal status, and re-portrays the fiscal status and development levels of various regions in China. We also analyze the influence of industry structure on the fiscal status of local governments, both theoretically and empirically.Our analysis finds that upgrading the industry structure at the national level will bring a positive financial impact. Subregional analysis further shows that the effects vary across regions: the upgrading of industry structure will have a strong positive impact on the eastern region, and a negative impact on the central and western regions. The negative impact on the western region is especially large, about three times that of the central region. We conduct 2 SLS regression with instrumental variables and find the result is still robust. The change direction of each region is consistent and the overall trend is unchanged. At the same time, we conduct dynamic panel,suggesting that different regions should combine their own endowments and choose different structure models to obtain better regional financial status and economic development.

关 键 词：产业结构 财政自给能力 净贡献 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]