中印贸易发展的阻碍因素与对策研究  

Obstacles and Countermeasures for Sino-Indian Trade Development

作　　者：陈富豪 朱翠萍 CHEN Fuhao;ZHU Cuiping

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心

出　　处：《南亚东南亚研究》2020年第1期64-78,155,156,共17页South and Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“‘一带一路’建设中的难点与突破路径研究”(项目编号:18XJAGJW002);云南省教育厅省校合作项目“印度对‘一带一路’倡议的应对方式、地区影响以及中国的策略与滇印合作研究”(项目编号:SYSX201804)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：近年来,中印两国将上演"龙象共舞"还是"龙象相争"的争议在学术界一直层出不穷,作为亚洲最大的两个发展中大国,维持中印经贸关系的稳步增长已经成为促进中印关系的重要加速器。然而,近年来中印双边贸易发展缓慢。2001~2018年间,中印双边贸易虽然已经取得了突破性成绩,但和两国体量相比仍显贸易水平较低,且双边贸易呈现出诸如贸易不平衡、贸易结合度不高、商品相似性过强等特点。近年来,中印两国都在大力发展其国内制造业,虽然中国正在经历从"中国制造"到"中国创造"的经济转型,但从印度对中国进行的贸易保护措施以及两国对外贸易商品在国际市场的表现来看,"龙象共舞"似乎并没有实现,反而在短期内"龙象独行"甚至"龙象相争"更有可能出现。究其原因,双边贸易互补的非对称性和单向性、贸易逆差导致的贸易保护主义以及印度对中国直接投资的限制、中印政治互信缺失对双边贸易的影响等是当前阻碍中印贸易发展的主要因素。21世纪上半叶对于中印两国来说都是至关重要的战略机遇期,如何基于现存问题,探索突破两国贸易发展困境的路径选择以及提升双边贸易额的应对举措,不仅有利于稳步提升双边贸易额,而且有助于促进双边政治关系健康发展。In recent years,disputes between China and India on whether to stage a "Dragon Elephant Dance Together"or"Dragon Elephant Fight"have been endless in the academic world.As the two largest developing countries in Asia,maintaining the steady growth of China-India economic and trade relations has become an important accelerator to promote China-India relations.However,in recent years,bilateral trade between China and India has developed slowly.Between 2001 and 2018,although China-India bilateral trade has achieved breakthrough results,it still shows a low level of trade compared with the volume of the two countries,and bilateral trade shows such issues as trade imbalances,low trade integration,and similar goods features.In recent years,both China and India have been vigorously developing their domestic manufacturing industries.Although China is undergoing an economic transition from"Made in China"to"Created in China",the trade protection measures that India has imposed on China and the foreign trade of the two countries judging from the performance of the international market,"Dragon Elephant Dance Together" does not seem to be realized,but in the short term,"Dragon Elephant Walk alone"or even"Dragon Elephant Fight"is more likely to occur.Investigating the reasons,the asymmetry and one-way complementarity of bilateral trade,trade protectionism caused by trade deficit,India's restrictions on China's direct investment,and the impact of lack of mutual trust between China and India on bilateral trade are main factors of hindering the development of China-India trade.

关 键 词：中印贸易 印度 贸易不平衡 互补性与竞争性 一带一路 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F753.51[经济管理—产业经济]