中国养老金税式支出测算及其结果评估  

Tax Expenditure Estimates and Evaluation on Pension System in China

作　　者：郑秉文[1] 吴孝芹[2] Zheng Bingwen;Wu Xiaoqin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院 [2]山东工商学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2020年第1期2-15,126,共15页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：测算中国养老金税式支出总额对正确评估养老金制度现状、明确改革取向和拓展研究前沿非常重要。文章首先锚定《企业所得税法》和《个人所得税法》,以"两法口径"作为估算养老金税式支出的基准税制,"财政口径"和"全域口径"作为辅助,采用收入放弃法对包括3个支柱和全国社保基金在内的中国养老金税式支出逐一分析和估算,最终得出养老金体系税式支出总额。从估算结果看,在中国养老金体系中,国家承担的财政责任重大,企业承担的融资负担沉重,从而再次印证了近5年连续大幅降费的必要性;虽然3个估算口径得出的结果存在较大差异,但均表明,企业降低的税式支出应尽快平移到第二、第三支柱,加大其税优政策力度;养老基金存量巨大而投资产生的税式支出比例较小,应加快投资改革的步伐,提高养老金制度可持续性;为推进发展多支柱养老金制度,应适时建立养老金税式支出统计测算制度。Accurate estimates of pension tax expenditure is fundamental to situation and evaluation, reform design, and expanding research frontier of pension system. This paper calculates tax expenditures of the three pension pillars and the National Social Security Fund, with the "Revenue Foregone" method, by anchoring The Enterprise Income Tax Law and The Individual Income Tax Law as the "two-law caliber" benchmark tax system and supplementing with "finance-used caliber" and "fully-covered caliber". It calculates the tax expenditures of every phase and every pillar, and obtains total pension tax expenditure. The results show that the government takes significant financial responsibilities and enterprises bear heavy contribution burden, which confirms the necessity of the reduction of pension contributions in the past five years.Although there is a large gap in the results given by the three calibers, three common insights can be proposed:(1) Transfer the reduced tax expenditure of the first pillar to the second and third pillars to improve tax incentive ability;(2) Speed up investment of pension funds to improve pension sustainability;(3) Establish pension tax expenditure budget system to promote the development of multi-pillar pension system.

关 键 词：税式支出 基准税制 税收优惠 养老金改革 测算 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F842.67