预期寿命延长对储蓄率的影响研究  

Analysis on the Impact of Life Expectancy Extension on the Saving Rate

作　　者：李猛[1] Li Meng

机构地区：[1]上海行政学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2020年第1期29-40,126,127,共14页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：随着人口预期寿命延长,国民储蓄率在某些国家和地区增加而在另一些国家和地区减少,在某些时期上升而在另一些时期下降。文章利用世界卫生组织的数据,将预期寿命分解为"不健康"预期寿命和健康预期寿命,从人口寿命结构视角观察人口在不同健康状态下的储蓄率差异。研究发现:(1)"不健康"预期寿命的长度对国民储蓄率有负面影响。即随着"不健康"预期寿命的延长,国民储蓄率趋于降低。(2)健康预期寿命的长短对国民储蓄率的影响并不显著,但其延长涉及的人群特征与国民储蓄率息息相关。具体而言,中青年人口健康状况的改善将促进储蓄率增长,而老年人口健康状况的改善则会弱化储蓄动机。这意味着健康状况的持续改善将推动新兴经济体的储蓄率形成先上升、后下降的倒"U"形走势。结合世界卫生组织的数据,可以推断目前中国国民储蓄率已进入寿命延长所诱发的下行通道。As the life expectancy extends, the saving rates rise in some countries but fall in others, and they rise in some periods and fall other time. Using WHO data, the paper divides life expectancy into"unhealthy" life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, and examines the saving rates in different components of population health structure. The research finds that:(1) the length of "unhealthy" life expectancy has a negative impact on national saving rate, with longer "unhealthy" life expectancy predicting a decline of national saving rate.(2) The length of healthy life expectancy has no significant effect on the national saving rate, but the composition of its increase is significantly related to the national saving rate.Specifically, the health improvement of the young and middle-aged population is an important driving force of the saving rate growth, while the health improvement of the elderly population will weaken the saving motivation. It means that the continued improvements in population health will drive the national saving rate up and down in an inverted U-shape.Combined with the WHO data, it can be inferred that China’s national saving rate has entered the downward channel induced by life extension.

关 键 词：健康预期寿命 “不健康”预期寿命 国民储蓄率 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学]