基于改进三参数灰色模型的海上交通事故预测  

Improved Three-Parameter Grey Model for Prediction of Marine Traffic Accidents

作　　者：徐东星 尹勇[2,3] 张秀凤[2,3] 孙珽[1] 叶进 付昭斌 XU Dongxing;YIN Yong;ZHANG Xiufeng;SUN Ting;YE Jin;FU Zhaobin(Maritime College,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,China;Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Dynamic Simulation&Control for Ministry of Communications,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学海运学院,广东湛江524088 [2]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [3]大连海事大学航海动态仿真和控制交通行业重点实验室,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国航海》2020年第1期12-17,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：大连海事大学省部级重点实验室开放基金(DMU-MSCKLT2018001);广东省交通运输厅科技项目(201702033)。

摘　　要：针对基于非齐次指数离散函数的灰色模型NHGM(1,1,k)在海上交通事故预测中存在的不足,提出一种优化背景值和残差综合修正的三参数灰色预测模型INHGM(1,1,λ,k),并通过改进的自适应粒子群优化(Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization,APSO)算法对模型中的初始值和背景值进行优化计算。将INHGM(1,1,λ,k)模型和NGHM(1,1,k)模型与传统GM(1,1)模型应用于我国海上船舶交通事故的模拟与预测,并对模拟与预测数据的精度进行比较。结果表明:INHGM(1,1,λ,k)模型模拟和预测的平均相对误差较NGHM(1,1,k)模型更小,与传统的GM(1,1)模型相比预测精度较高,减少原模型由于参数近似替代所导致的模拟误差,在误差允许的范围内,可为船舶交通事故的预测和控制提供新的理论依据。Aiming at the shortcomings of common non-homogeneous exponential discrete model NHGM(1,1,k)in marine traffic accident prediction,a three-parameter grey prediction model INHGM(1,1,λ,k)with optimized background value and residual correction is proposed.The background value and the initial value of the model are optimized through the improved APSO(Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization).The improved INHGM(1,1,λ,k)model,NGHM(1,1,k)model and normal GM(1,1)model are applied to investigate marine traffic accident data in Chinese waters respectively,and the accuracy of the simulation results are compared.The comparison shows that the average relative error of the improved model INHGM(1,1,λ,k)is smaller than that of the NHGM(1,1,k)model and the GM(1,1)model.The simulation error caused by the approximate model parameters is reduced with the INHGM(1,1,λ,k)model,providing a theoretical basis for marine traffic accident control and prediction.

关 键 词：灰色系统 NHGM(1 1 λ k) 背景值优化 自适应粒子群优化 海上交通事故 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]