2012-2016年象山近岸海域水质评价与模拟研究  

Evaluation and Simulation of Water Quality in Xiangshan Coastal Waters from 2012 to 2016

作　　者：叶林安 欧阳萱 陈杲 袁国坚 茆洪卫 YE Linan;OUYANG Xuan;CHEN Gao;YUAN guojian;MAO hongwei(Ningbo Environmental Monitoring Center,SO A,Ningbo 315040,China;Key Laboratory of Integrated Monitoring and Applied Technology for Marine Harmful Algal Blooms,State Oceanic Administration,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局宁波海洋环境监测中心站,宁波315040 [2]海洋赤潮灾害立体监测技术与应用国家海洋局重点实验室,上海200090

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2020年第3期31-35,共5页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：自然资源部东海局青年海洋科学基金(201803);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC1402405)。

摘　　要：为了解象山近岸海域水质污染状况,文章根据2012-2016年象山县近岸海域的水质监测结果,分析象山近岸海域水质现状及年际变化。应用灰色预测的模型来对象山近岸海域水质主要污染物的相关数据进行处理,得出主要污染物的预测结果。分析结果表明:象山近岸海域主要污染物为无机氮。用预测结果和实际数值通过残差验证,最后模拟出今后几年的监测值,为象山县近岸海域生态环境相关管理部门提供数据支撑和决策依据。In order to understand the status of water pollution in Xiangshan coastal waters,based on the monitoring results of water quality in Xiangshan coastal waters from 2012 to 2016,this paper analyzed the current situation and inter-annual changes of water quality in Xiangshan coastal waters.The grey prediction model was applied to deal with the data of the main pollutants in the water quality of the coastal waters of Xiangshan,and the prediction results of the main pollutants were obtained.The results showed that inorganic nitrogen was the main pollutant in Xiangshan coastal waters.The prediction results and the actual values were verified by the residual error.Finally,the monitoring values for the next few years were simulated.It provided data support and decision-making basis for the relevant management departments of marine ecological environment in Xiangshan coastal waters.

关 键 词：象山近岸 水质 年际变化 灰色模型 主要污染物 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学]