OTS、MOS和OMOS方法及其优化组合应用于72h内逐3h降水预报的试验分析研究  

Comparison of OTS,MOS,OMOS Methods and Their Combinations Applied in 3 h Precipitation Forecasting out to 72 h

作　　者：赵瑞霞 代刊 金荣花 韦青 张宏[2] 郭云谦 林建 王玉 唐健 ZHAO Ruixia;DAI Kan;JIN Ronghua;WEI Qing;ZHANG Hong;GUO Yunqian;LIN Jian;WANG Yu;TANG Jian(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081;CMA Meteorological Observation Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2020年第3期420-428,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-148);国家科技支撑计划(2015BAC03B04);国家自然科学基金项目(41575066)共同资助。

摘　　要：开展了夏半年72 h内逐3 h降水预报试验,针对ECMWF模式预报、基于ECMWF的模式输出统计(MOS)预报、纳入超前空间实况信息的OMOS预报,以及三种预报的最优TS评分订正(OTS)预报,对比分析预报效果,探讨一种多方法结合能够提供良好预报性能的3 h定量降水预报技术方案。结果表明:在短期预报中,MOS预报与OTS订正相结合的MOS-OTS综合预报方法的预报性能最好,而且MOS-OTS方法的3 h强降水预报与业务运行的城镇指导预报中融合主客观预报的降水预报相比,也具有一定优势;而在临近3 h预报中,则OMOS预报与OTS订正相结合的OMOS-OTS综合预报方法最优,3 h内0.1、3和10 mm以上降水的TS评分最高,比原始模式预报分别提高73%、198%和483%,Bias评分接近于1,在夏半年的逐日晴雨预报中,OMOS-OTS方法在大部分日期都稳定优于MOS-OTS预报和城镇指导预报。The performance of three statistical post-processing methods and their combinations for 3 h precipitation forecasts out to 72 h from May to September are compared in this paper.They are optimal threat score(OTS)correction,model output statistics(MOS)and MOS with prior-spatial observation predictors(OMOS).The 3 h precipitation forecasts of ECMWF model output(DMO),MOS,OMOS,and their OTS correction forecasts(DMO-OTS,MOS-OTS,OMOS-OTS)are evaluated.The results show that MOS-OTS method has the best performance in the short term forecast.At the same time,for the heavy precipitation forecast,MOS-OTS also obviously outperforms the operational guidance(GD)forecast which integrates subjective and objective predictions.In the first 3 h precipitation forecast,OMOS-OTS is the best method.For the first 3 h precipitation forecast,the TS scores of OMOS-OTS for thresholds of 0.1,3 and 10 mm per 3 h are improved about 73%,198%and 483%than DMO respectively.And the bias score of OMOS-OTS is close to 1.In the daily variation during summer time,the first 3 h precipitation forecast from OMOS-OTS outperforms both MOS-OTS and GD forecast in most days evaluated by TS and Bias scores for the threshhold of 0.1 mm per 3 h.

关 键 词：MOS预报 OMOS预报 OTS订正预报 综合预报方法 精细降水预报 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]