中国间接税税负归宿研究:汽车市场准自然实验的证据  

Indirect Tax Incidence in China:Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in the Vehicle Market

作　　者：周波 赵国昌 ZHOU Bo;ZHAO Guochang(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics;Research Institute of Economic and Management,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院财政税务学系,100029 [2]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院,610074

出　　处：《经济研究》2020年第3期133-147,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(15BJY134)的资助。

摘　　要：基于汽车之家的微观数据和2015年10月开始的车辆购置税减半征收政策,本文运用倍差法考察了车辆购置税的税负归宿,并分析了汽车的车辆购置税和增值税的收入分配效应。本文发现:车辆购置税减半征收优惠的85%为消费者所得;汽车销售价格对税率变化的调整非常迅速;尽管消费者获得了减税优惠的70%以上,但是购置搭载了升级发动机(涡轮增压发动机)的消费者获得的减税优惠明显更少;购买外国品牌汽车的消费者获得的减税优惠更多;车辆购置税减半征收未导致收入不平等程度的降低。这些结果表明,我国车辆购置税的税率变化能有效传导到价格,其对消费和环境保护的影响是可期的。作为从价税,车辆购置税的税负归宿为我国间接税税负归宿提供了启示。Tax incidence is one of the most important themes in public economics. When governments consider implementing a tax increase or a tax cut, they need to consider who will bear the increased tax burden or who will benefit from the tax cut. The numerous empirical studies that have examined these issues over the last three decades have enhanced our understanding of tax incidence, tax policies, and the economic effects of tax. Since the 1990s, indirect taxes have accounted for more than half of the total tax revenue in China. However, because few empirical studies have examined the incidence of indirect tax in China, our understanding of indirect tax incidence is mainly confined to theoretical analyses. In addition, China's Gini coefficient has remained above 0.46 for the last two decades, and income inequality has long been a focal topic of discussion. Moreover, environmental pollution, especially air pollution, is a serious problem in China. Thus, we also need to deepen our understanding of how tax affects both income distribution and environmental pollution. Although a large body of research has examined the impact of tax on income distribution, carbon emissions, and economic growth, due to the lack of empirical research, these studies impose some assumptions regarding tax incidence;for example, they usually assume that buyers bear all of the tax.Consistent estimation of the division of the tax incidence between buyers and sellers requires some form of exogenous shock. In 2015, China's central government suddenly cut vehicle purchase tax by half, providing a quasi-natural experiment to estimate tax incidence and analyze the impact of indirect tax in the vehicle market on China's income distribution. Specifically, on September 29, 2015, the Ministry of Finance of China and the State Taxation Administration of China unexpectedly announced a joint tax cut policy that reduced the tax rate from 10% to 5% on vehicles with engines smaller than 1.6 liters from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016.In this paper, we use data

关 键 词：车辆购置税 税负归宿 间接税 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F426.471