发展承压仍具韧性 动能转换迈向新阶--2019年中国能源回顾与2020年展望  

Resilient Growth, Shifting Impetus and New Horizon despite Headwinds--2019 China’s Energy Review and 2020 Prospect

作　　者：丁宣升 曹勇[1] 刘潇潇[1] 刘红光 程一步[1] 李振光[1] 侯晖[1] 杨宁[1] Ding Xuansheng;Cao Yong;Liu Xiaoxiao;Liu Hongguang;Cheng Yibu;Li Zhenguang;Hou Hui;Yang Ning(Sinopec Economics&Development Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工集团公司经济技术研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2020年第2期7-15,共9页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2019年在外部环境复杂、国内经济增长承压的大背景下,同时在供给侧结构性改革推动高耗能行业转型升级的助推下,我国能源消费稳增,但增速预计放缓至3.2%,同时能源消费结构保持低碳化绿色化的趋势不变。2020年,能源行业面临着地缘政治动荡、经济增速进一步减小的发展环境,同时又受工业化、城镇化进程的支撑,能源消费预期稳定增长,但受新冠疫情影响,增速预计将有所下降。总体而言,能源发展"十三五"规划目标可基本完成,我国能源将迈向调速换挡期。China’s energy consumption increased steadily in 2019, with its green low-carbon trend unchanged but growth rate likely slowing down to 3.2%, largely due to the complex external environment, the weak economic growth and the upgrading of energy-intensive sectors driven by supply-side structural reform. In 2020, China’s energy industry is faced with geopolitical turbulence and slower economic growth, but bolstered by industrialization and urbanization. Taken together, China’s energy consumption growth will slow down, partly offset by novel coronavirus epidemic. Overall, China’s energy can achieve the development goals of the 13 th Five-Year Plan, albeit at a downshift speed, while heading toward a new horizon.

关 键 词：一次能源消费 能源结构 能源消费强度 能源供应 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]